RE:a serious conversation about $21,000,000 in interest each QAs mentioned before, they are probably buying back their own bonds and not telling the market that.to keep them down.
So they are buying their own debt cheap.
If the above is true, brilliant and worth paying the extra interest this year, knowing they were going to do this if the differentials didn't spike in fourth quarter.
And they did have free cash flow in 3rd quarter and suspect with hedging they will again in the fourth. The share buyback was stated to be done with free cash flow. Also smart. Extra barrels are being moved on existing pipelines now, rail will pick up with Kenny pushing and sturgeon refinery to comes on in early 2020. This alone brings down differential. If positive news comes from line 3, bonus. Imoroved wti, bonus. The cash flow is massive with $5 extra dollars per barrel whether from differential or WTI increase. If its $10 dollars, they can buy back whole company in a year. So the NCIB allows them to make bolder moves on buybacks earlier if they see positive news from the above points.
You of course understand all of this, as do most followers of ATH. Thats why i believe a Husky bid or other takeover is imminent. The billion debt carry forward is just a bonus as well. Some company has drove the shares down. Shorts dont take crazy risk and after the saudi refinery attack to still have the same amount of shorts. It is 100% for a buyout offer.
We just dont know who or how much.