Painted Pony Pete Ltd PDPYF

for kivas

[uograd]

hi Kivas

Here is how I see the rollout in 2020.  You can take this opinion with a grain of salt but is what I believe.

The first week of january will see TD come out and upgrade the entire industry and tell people it is safe to go back in the water.  They will probably move pony to 1.75 oe 2.00. right now they have a buy rating and 1.30.  This will move pony over a buck.

Then if by an act of god we have a cold weather snap in canada and if all accounts of no gas strorage in alberta are true we see aeco with a mid 3 handle or 4 bucks that will give us another good bump through to 1.50.  They will also release their massive reserve report then.

Then tourmaline will either buy them or buy a similar company and set the new standard for what montney assets are worth.  That gets us to 2 bucks

Then shell sobers up and realizes they better get in the game either outbid tourmaline on pony or if tourmaline buy someone else buy pony outright.

cash and paper in the 2.50 to 3 buck range.

Happy hunting.

if we have an extremely mild winter it probably knocks .50 to .65 off this hypothesis.

at 3 bucks pony is valued at about 480 million in equity and 360 million in debt so let's say 840 million with is less than 16,000 per boepd with no money for infrastructure.