Horseshoe -- status quo? Good Q. Let's discuss...First, I agree with you. I think an update is in order. My take is they cannot sell what is left -- it will crystalzie huge losses for the leaership and many invesotrs. I would vote to torpedo that, even with a superfical Jimmy P syle "80%% premium!" (see Canfor) to a wildly low baseline.
Mgmt was buying shares in the $5+ range. Blue Wolf bought in the $6.00 and they are rutheless. They need to get the SP to over $5 THEN SELL for a 30%+ premium. As I mentioned, this won't be that hard --they have simplicity and great markets on their side. Sculpin2's Polar take is bang on --check out the bios/profiles there. Those are not men who play games with lameducks -- they will force results which is what we need. They are the heavy hitters we need here. Wish they had more exposure.
"Core" is interesting. The only real core was always McK and the easy power money. The mill was also good too, and still is. FSJ was a trainwreck, and always has been -- at P&T, at Canfor, etc. That's why they got it cheap. Horrid worksorce. Never worked. Three line monster with awful conversion costs. I went thorugh it once and yikes, that's a nasty place. Good thing Hampton is gonna rebuitd it from scratch. Good divestiture.
Would they divest core this McK core??? Sure sounds like they tried. I agree -- better to sell McK for $X than all 3 US mills for $X. If they could have gotten US $160 M for McK then they would have kept the US South clearly. But they mentioned in the last CC they found McK buyers, but they weren't giving them fair value for the powerplant as it has some risk of residuals, forestry "scariness", or whatever. They wisely didn't force the issue and sell it below market value. Risk, for example, may be that a power co would be scared of reliance on a sawmill co of different ownership -- what if someone cuts off residuals for fuel? So some vertical integration may be smart.
So, they sold what had most market value. Fair enough. Regardless, McK is gonna have to light it up in terms of earnings now though. I think Ken stays to salvage his investment, and they have no heir apparent. Smarter people than me can point me to a petition or motion to remove him which I would happly join. Truck that guy. Yet, the devil you know right. And there is no Plan B now. Overall the leadership team looks pretty darn weak. Resolute will likely "keep" some of the mgmt they referred to -- hopefully Hans Thirr and Big Fella who inherited the US mills (forgot his name). Resolute will accept them, and then promptly remove ineffective VPs. I am curious If they stay or go, but that's not my problem. These RFP folks are some ruthless Quebecois who won't tolerate empty suits.
My main issue, which is resolved, is that the CFF gang needed to make those mothertrucking mills run and they had over a year to do it. I know it's hard there, but at the least have a google search and read a Wiki on "scenario planning" -- you pack of retreads. They did not make the mills run or plan for ups and downs. Better stewardship means they could have sold maybe 2 of 3 for the same price and retained some upside in the US.
I expect business as usual, and I'd be amazed if the shares were below $2.00 a year from now. I mean we are not even talking the need for a Donald Trumb Jr. to run this to make it win. Barron could do it. Thank dios we have Polar to crack the whip on these bozos; it'll be much easier to do so now that there is no need for large pay packages or expenses due to the simplicity of it all. I still have over 100k in shares and want to hold until maybe $3.50 which is possible, but I expect that might creep into 2022 and is subject to the lumber recovery getting back on track. Worst case if it stalls again I sell for over $2.00 here as it’s not hard and there is clear value.
Good luck to all and good discussion. I am excited all equal for the coming 24 months.