Forecast challenge for Bte in 2020Bte mgmt will be layering in more hedges to guarantee debt reduction. Still a game of locking in free cash flow to reduce debt. US shale production has peaked and will waffle in 2020 then will roll over. OPEC will be back in charge starting in 2021. This will mean higher WTI oil prices at or above $70.
Last day of tax loss selling. The bottom is captain obvious in. I am going to predict (lol) a conservatively high price of $3.25 to $3.50 for 2021 as things are now. It could go higher if the oil surprises of course. BTE is very profitable above $60 WTI with light oil in Sask. and gets Brent pricing for the Eagleford. Also WCS very profitable at these levels and beyond. The Duvernay is now becoming more relevant and valuable at these prices. A billion dollar asset to BTE given zero value by the market at these prices.
At 100000 barrels per day BTE is a cash flow machine into 2020. The BTE mgmt 3 way hedges cover the downside risks. The November/December BTE share prices were a gift. A classic throw in the towel investor panic at $1.35. I want to thank anyone who sold to me in the low $1.40s as the puke point was met and exceeded. Christmas was excellent with speciality foods, premium whiskey and nice selection of premium beers. My family was very appreciative of the Baytex boosted gift count. The crew is going to a high end steak house tonight. Threw in a month long trip to Europe and a spring golf trip. Various charities appeared grateful for the BTE generated contributions. Thanks again folks. Feel free to buy back in. Still lots of upside. Christmas will be really great next year.
Feel free to post your BTE share forecast and reasons for. For bragging rights.