RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:As always, Supreme gains the LEAST in this rallyThere is no volume of late Dub, and staying in this $0.60- .70 range would suggest that the real money is going to give Dhaliwal and the guidance a chance, of which is very doable since the changes in-house, funding and what guidance entails I prefer the stability here and escalate on merit when achieved.
The difference with FIRE is that all of the issues of concern are well within the capabilities of the Company and team and most importantly all within their control to make the changes necessary from here on....the rest having to shelve quality at scale is up hill at best and for many insurmountable. Add real profit realized by the end of FY2020, which again appears to be a done deal, very doable at worst case scenerio.
When you factor in the potential with revenues north of $300mil in the pipeline for FY2021, FIRE is in a league of it's own in the near term as long as current guidance is met or exceeded. They will need to add to/ change the menu, bring different strains into the mix along the way....and get the 'ultra premium' facility up and running as soon as is practical, we need to be in on the ground floor with that as well, the market for ultra is there and will always be there for high quality herb. FQ2/20 ends today, numbers will be even more interesting from here on, JMHO...Opt
DubbyTGF wrote: I'll admit that I was pondering how people would see my use of the term, "worry." My two recent posts weren't really context-conclusive, so I'll elaborate a little bit.
As long as management hasn't been dishonest or incompetent with their expectations, the trend for Supreme will certainly be up from here. This will net a very solid ROI for anyone entering at this level. Although, my expectations for evaluation are quite a bit lower than what I've been seeing elsewhere. Once you factor in all forms of debt, my valuation was actually somewhat comparable to other similar [undervalued] equities in the sector.
I suppose I said, "worry," because I know that many, including myself, were expecting the weight to shift to the buyside in this trough, but since it hasn't as this trend is reaching its conclusion, experience makes me think we may have further downside. And since we're in a freefall zone, I have no real idea what to expect, and I consider that a bit worrisome. Not that I'm actually worried, but I always hate missing out on a good FIRE sale.
I'll have to consider my allocation and risk tolerance, should that happen. If one more dip comes, it will be hard to miss out on that. Although, if the market keeps waiting around for Supreme to prove itself, any further misses could truly ensue a bloodbath.
You've done well with Supreme, so would you care to elaborate on exactly what you're looking at? You said, "hoping to make," does that mean you entered again at these levels? I believe you said you've been trading FIRE, have you held a long position again already and since when? I'm curious because I certainly could have executed my entry better, but I'm always learning.
If another dip comes, to anybody who kept free-capital to load up and hit their allocation goals at those prices, I would be very envious and impressed.