RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:New price discovery or will support at 94 cents hold?fauxtomato wrote: Yeah, probably not, but I remember when Keyera went public as a trust with older assets cobbled together from Chevron and Gulf and traded around (now split adjusted) 7-10 from 2004 to 2009.
Those were also some uncertain times in the Canadian oil patch, much different than today, but still strange. Sure gas was still worth something then, and it was a different magnitude of assets, but what Keyera started with, and the vision they had, built into something much different today than it was a decade ago.
I don't know if TWM follows the same trajectory, their current slate of assets doesn't give me a whole ton of confidence (the assets and business lines are too diverse and isolated for synergy, too small for scale) but if the last couple of years was the bottom for AECO, and they're serious about paying down debt until their equity cost of capital improves. Maybe the spreads/pricing/activity bails them out, maybe they build themselves out of this. Don't know what happens here.
I had thought it was Bonavista redirecting volumes to Ram River, but I think those volumes went to KEY's Ricinus plant. The new volumes to Ram may partially have been Shell, who sold those assets to PEA, the same company who bought IKM who is also a big customer at Ram. Maybe this is a risk, maybe it's an opportunity, some of the assets PEA picked up from Shell could be a good fit with TWM.
One final big thought: an acquisition of one of the customers at Pipestone by an investment grade producer could change their cost of capital in a hurry, PIPE or KEL, even AAV.
excellent points. i bought this a few years ago when i wanted a little high beta excitement in my life. i usually lost money with small oil or mining companies and this is a little safer. i'm a little underwater but no buyer's remorse and minimal anxiety.