RE:Q2 - upcoming - and the rise back to 3bucks...... This should be pretty close joh, $25mil should be no problem at all as they had ~$19mil in the vault at beginning of quarter....it would depend on in-house packaging capacity over the period, which appears to be the driver for the back loaded sales numbers for the 2nd half of FY2020.
It appears that the packaging is the main driver for guidance timing and in Jan 6th NR that Moore was taking the reins and Dhaliwal is out, can't get 'er can't stay...Moore would see the progress to achieve guidance was lagging and he was/ is the man to change it and get back on track which allows them to take their time finding the new CEO.
If sales are $25mil for FQ2/20 that will leave ~$115- 145 in sales over the next 6mos to meet guidance, this bullet from NR pretty well says it all:
Interim CEO to leverage successful track record to accelerate growth and transformation strategy, while improving speed to market and rightsizing operating and capital spends.
The re-up of guidance and that confirmed again by IR since and with Moore at the helm this looks to be doable or very close to it at a minimum, a $50mil per quarter average is going to be a pretty nice start. Add real profit realized by FQ4/20 and a $3 SP should not be far away at all and with packaging at full production and full grow area under crop for 2nd half of CY2020 we should see $3, especially with the bloodbath projected for much of the rest of the sector. Most in the sector are no where near showing profit and will need to burn through plenty of green to grow and shelve the quality demanded by the consumer.
FIRE's trajectory going forward is far more vertical than the rest and while it goes up many of the rest like ACB are not even close to profitability and won't be for some time, if they even exist in the near future. Even if it took Moore another quarter to achieve guidance targets, not that that should be entertained but they would still be passing most in the sector as they try to retool and try to get a quality menu on the shelf, never mind show profit. FIRE is positioned better than most today to not only survive but thrive and prosper, JMHO....Opt johnale wrote: facility complete, new products, more pre-rolls, expanded blissco distribution.... some insider buying.
lots should be coming.
Nav and the board doubled down on november 14 (1/2 way through q2) that guidance at 150 - 180 mil stood.
they for sure had to get approval from board as well to post that - and if things were so terrible then - bmo wouldn't be giving them 90 million or the board wouldn't approve that message.
So - I think february revenues should be decent.
see the Q1 release and update -
12000 3.5g or 7g bottles/day capacity for Q2 - translates to over 20mil in flower distributuion. (all 10 provinces)
wholesale probably 10-15% another 2-3 mil in flower sales.
blissco flower/pre-roll cbd - 1.5 - 2mil?
jack haze pre-roll/truverra/KKE oils - 2-3mil?
should be a 25+ mil quarter........ thats a scary number for anyone short.
https://www.supreme.ca/supreme-cannabis-announces-q1-2020-financial-results-and-90-million-credit-facility-led-by-bank-of-montreal