RE:SA Article on Baytex - Jan 12A solid post. At least it is a straight forward thesis for bull board participants to review and ponder. Also note the disclosure of the author. I would submit he is not a paid pumper in the sense that he is conflicted with brokerage firm Corprate Finance fees and trading or fees from Baytex. He is paid for generating money makling ideas that attract investor readership.
Disclosure: I am/we are long BTE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
His thesis is that at $60 WTI oil based on publically available metrics BTE is very profitable and able to make significant progress on it's debt reduction knocking off 2021 debt coming due. He also theorizes that there will be a dramatic change in global supply demand metrics (Chrystal ball forecasting). The opposite opinion for global supply demand is that we are range bound with flatish demand and plenty of oil. Unfortunately, from what I read and hear from the pundits is there is more than enough global oil to maintain the current oil trading range. N.A. producers appear to hedge what they can every time we get above $60 WTI as it is very profitable (and I expect that of BTE mgmt until that debt level hits the Net debt to adjusted funds flow hits the 1.5 target). OPEC countries also have extra production capacity/storage for short term geo political events. Russia is a wild card for cheating. Some big offshore discoveries such as Guyana, Suriname etc. that can be brought on much quicker and cheaper than in the past. There are many reasons for oil to be range bound. All that said I hope the author is correct about an upcoming supply demand inflection causing oil to rise in the next 6 to 12 months.