GREY:IMVIF - Post by User
Comment by
alphaseeking001on Jan 21, 2020 1:02pm
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Post# 30578382
RE:RE:How advanced to we have to be to be considered for buyout?
RE:RE:How advanced to we have to be to be considered for buyout?QM45... Thanks again for the reply and the time you took to write it. (Just thought I'd throw in a little more of that Canadian politeness! ) I won't hold you to any predictions but I'd certainly like to see your scenario play out and sooner rather than 3 years from now. We'll see. Cheers.
QM45 wrote: LOL Alpha! I like your Canadian political correctness... But to answer your question I very much think the buyout is imminent if you read my posts. Now, does that mean it will happen this year? I think in terms of probabilties I would put them at 60-70% if you were to pin me down.
But that is far from relevant. What is relevant is the market waking up to the possibilty of a take out? and I would say categorically YES.
Now if someone feels like having a "measured" approach in their investing, and requires certain milestones to appear before they fully commit their capital, that is fine.
However, based on my own experience which is the ONLY thing that matters to me, I know the market is a forward discount mechanism and is Darwinian in it's approach to investing.
There is nothing MEASURED about the way the market works. If you want measured you should clip coupons on T-Bills. In Biotech responses are generally asymmetrical.
I expect IMV to be trading between $10-20 in the next 1-4 months on EXPECTATIONS of a take out as long as Mono results stay CONSISTENT with the past read outs.
Now, looks like WF analyst woke up to the fact that there is a real science to IMV and the market completely ignored his silly price target and ripped close to 100% since.
Let me see this conversation playing out at a morning brief:
"Our clients are asking as about this small Canadian biotech IMV, do we cover it?"
"Yes, we do."
It's sitting at $15US, where are we on this one?
"At $3US..."
"Hmmm... You are clearly on top of your game mate."
LOL!