Q4 production dataI've updated my well-by-well model and arrived at the follwoing monthly production for Q4:
Oct: 13057 boe/d (28.2% oil)
Nov: 12904 boe/d (29.1% oil)
Dec: 13267 boe/d (25.8% oil)
For a total Q4 of 13076 boe/d and 27.7% oil cut. 2019 average then becomes 12700 boe/d (31% oil).
Let's see how close I get, the report should be around the corner.
Some specifics on December. No new well were completed, yet YGR managed to increase production! Any views on how? Newly installed pumps? Some wells chocked and opened up when gas prices increased? They have done it on the expense of an even lower oil cut. We really need some new oily wells to come to rescue in Q1 to lift the oil cut back above 30%.
The 2017 well vintage holds very well, dec 18 to dec 19 is almost flat on a boe basis which is very impressive. Oil is down a lot (-40%) which as we know hurts cash flow. 2018 wells are starting to moderate their decline, pretty flat for the last 3 months on a boe basis, oil slighlty down.
2019 was not a great year, either way you cut it. I believe 2020 will be better with the strong position they have now built in Cheddar. The next months production data from the 7 recently drilled wells will be extremely important.
Investing in YGR is about the longer term and a belief in their inventory and mangement's ability to execute and keep costs low. As production well inventory builds and well declines moderate FCF will come (you could argue it is already here if they only kept production flat)
You can find a detailed table of Q4 and a production by well vintage year here
Chart Table Best, D