TSX:CHE.DB.E - Post by User
Comment by
Khersonon Jan 29, 2020 10:19am
185 Views
Post# 30613835
RE:So where are we now?
RE:So where are we now?Fantome wrote: A while back I made a number of posts following the 3Q report. In summary I said that if the company could out together a couple more clean reports without any negative surprises......the market would move towards the long term average yield of about 8%...which would suggest a SP of around 16 by the end of 2Q this year.
With today's announcement we are not getting the required clean reports or outlook....so a scenario leading to higher SPs is now off the table for now.
Todays announcement was a combination of a negative onetime event...the maintenance downtime and the client refinery outage...and a potential longer negative term issue relating to commodity prices.
The market reaction reflected this situation.....if it was just a longer term event then we have seen pressure back down to the 8s...
We have seen a mire serious situation in the past in 2008 when a major plant was down for a long and unexpected time...at that time the distribution was not cut and the company recovered and the SP went up.
We can now expect to see a range bound SP for this year between the mid 9s and the mid 10s.
Is there any good news in all of this?
If the company had plans to cut the distribution they would done so in the announcement today. This leads to the conclusion that despite all the bad news they expect to be able to fund the distribution out of distributable cashflow this year.
I am really surprised that you of all people would state that any distribution cut would have been announced in the guidance document. You and I both know that the monthly distribution is determined every month by the BOT, not the management team, who were the ones who released this Guidance document.
The distribution cut will be announced either in the year end financials, or in their normal monthly distribution NR!
Kherson