Latest AssessmentFound this on RBC the report is If I remember right 13 pages long. But there were a few highlights I found it interesting as it may offer some insight on Teck's moves or intentions in the near future.
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C&P
Business Strategy and Outlook Mathew Hodge, CFA, Analyst, 15 October 2019 China plays a defining role for Teck as the biggest buyer of everything the company digs out of the ground: metallurgical coal, copper, zinc, and lead. With the exception of lead, demand for these commodities is tied to fixed-asset investment. We expect a rebalancing of China's economy from investment to household consumption will mean weaker demand growth for investment-oriented commodities and lower prices than Teck has enjoyed in the past.
Teck produces high-quality metallurgical coal. The price of met coal, which is used in steelmaking, benefited from China's fixed-asset investment boom.
Amid weaker Chinese steel demand, we expect China's met coal import needs to decline, particularly once supply-side reforms on domestic coal mines are complete.
We expect global seaborne demand growth to shrink. India is expected to be the main source of incremental demand; however, we forecast that this will be insufficient to offset the falls we expect from China, with domestic supply taking share and shrinking overall demand, Given forecast declines in steel consumption and greater scrap usage.
With its decent cash cost position, we expect Teck to remain profitable, though much less so than it was previously.
Teck is one of the higher-cost copper producers we cover. There are considerable differences in cash costs within the portfolio: The high-grade Antamina mine in Peru is viable under nearly any reasonable copper price, while mines in Canada and Chile might struggle in the years to come, as we expect copper prices to sag on weaker Chinese demand growth.
A slower-growing Chinese steel industry will exert significant downward pressure on metallurgical coal prices. Teck's copper business isn't particularly cost advantaged, and in periods of weak copper prices, certain operations might struggle to generate positive margins.
Like many miners, Teck has seen costs rise incredibly quickly over the past several years, threatening serious margin compression if the tide goes out on pricing
Our outlook for Chinese steel demand and steel scrap availability suggests the market has yet to see the worst for metallurgical coal. We expect met coal prices of USD 91 per tonne in a midcycle environment by 2023.
We expect similar weakness in copper. Cost deflation and a bearish Chinese demand outlook lead us to expect lower market clearing prices than previous years. Our long-term copper price forecast is USD 2.30 per pound in 2021. We assume a zinc price of USD 1.10 per pound from 2020, in line with spot, and inflated at 2.25% per year.
With the recovery in commodity prices from 2016, Teck meaningfully improved the balance sheet, and its financial position is sound. With balance sheet improvement largely done, we expect a focus on dividends to shareholders, either dividends or potentially share repurchases.
For oil, we forecast long-term West Texas Intermediate prices of USD 56 per barrel by 2023, which implies USD. 37 per barrel Western Canada Select prices for the Fort Hills oil sands project.
Should Teck again embark on expensive procyclical developments or acquisitions, and risk the balance sheet with financial leverage, a poor stewardship rating may be appropriate.