Starsearcher80 wrote: Fatty,
What you seem unable to conceive is that it is a realtime world with data coming at you continuously. I remain completely maleable to that data, and will change in a hearbeat. Absolutely, I thought the case for $40 was there, primarily as a chart play. I stated the case. But what I think at a given moment, and what I see, are not necessarily the same thing. As it turned out, (and I could hope all I want for otherwise), was that the chart broke down, and we crept closer to the impact of people selling prior to the quarterly.
I could SEE that, and in my world, you don't argue with the market. You respond to the market. So as the chart broke down, and the timeframe was getting too close to substantiate the run, the new charts/data/timelines suggested that it was time to move out.
So I did that, and avoided a 30% hit. Good move in my books.
On the day of the quarterly, I was fully prepared to come back in if I got what I heard. I have no problem that the stock jumped up. That was the price of insurance, so to speak, and the stock was still below my exit point. Capital protection comes first, and I'm not in to coin tosses.
But listening to the quarter, I DIDN'T get what I wanted. I found the discussion lame on many points, and completely evasive. Essentially, they kicked the cuts can down the road where they should have had the balls to do something now. This in and of itself amounts to "new data". I didn't like what I heard, so the buy order never came through on that day.
I did take the time to explain my thoughts, but of course the "married-to-the-stiock" "don't say anything bad about my baaby", "to the moon" crowd NEVER wants to hear the truth. They are not too bright a crowd, and out themselves with single sentence babble that serves no fruitful discussion for or against.
Well once again, the clowns get taught the lesson by the market. But that's how it goes. Never too big a worry, because they eventually wash out, handing their money over to the pros.
So to respond to you Fatty, as a trader I don't just flip my mind. The market, if I'm smart enough to listen and decipher, tells me it's time to flip.
The calls:
1) Said at around $55.00 that it would drop to $22.00. That happened.
2) Said at $24ish that it would drop below $20. That happened.
3) Said at about $18ish that it was oversold, and bought in heavy. That bounce happened.
4) Said it would run quick to $30ish. That happened.
5) Said it would run to $40. That didn't happen, but then saw that, changed my mind, and got out at $31.50ish.
6) Said the risk/reward had changed. That happened and the stock dropped 30%
7) Said I wasn't impressed with the conference call, and that the rally, such as it was, was only relief that the news wasn't THAT bad. I said the stock would drop. In two days the stock has dropped 9% off the high of the day of the quartery.
Now, if any of the clowns wants to suggest their strategy has been a greater win, then go right ahead. But time and time again, I've said what I thought, gave the reasons for that thought, and then on the whole, whatched that exact thought play out.
The clowns? Just a constant diet of eating crow. Sheesh, you would think they would get sick of it day after day after day. ;)
Fattty33 wrote: Star, the reason you've lost credibility on this board is because a month ago you stated the run to $40 should be pretty straightforward and easy. You had a 5 paragraph post about it, insinuating all of the research you had done and the reasoning for the continued increase in SP.
less than two weeks later you flipped a 180, saying there was no way the Q report could be positive and people with brains would bail before the release and buy back lower. You gave all of your reasons for believing that, which means all of your previous research was wrong (?).
Then the release came, and the stock jumped 19% in a day. No, no one believes a thing you say or try to convince them of.
I can't imagine why.