Thought's on Q4/mine extension/CCFirst off I'm not too surprised by the survivability of Kisladag, I invested in Eldorado a little over a year ago expecting such results, but I am surprised at how good those results actually are, very minimal capital investment with a long run life, this is very good for eldorado going forward.
As for the general Q4 results, I'm disappointed and it's entirely because of olympias. Olympias continues to be a cash drain and management continues to spell the same narrative that the story is improving there. Yet the AISC for q4 was $1986 higher than the year average of $1837, that doesn't seem like an improvement. Olympias is dragging down the performance of all the other assets.
Also at first glance it looked like the company posted that it was cashflow positive of ~42m, however the company sold $48m shares to the public or 6.1m shares ~4% dilution. Despite this massive amount of dilution the company managed to raise the book value from $20.27 to $20.37 per share. It's kind of sad that the company diluted shareholders just before coming out with the kisaldag news. The dilution could have fetched the company more cash. There is still another $77m worth that the company could sell from their ATM equity program, so we could see more dilution in q1 :(
Now they've kind of hinted at what their game plan is, to get permits for skouries & find a partner to take care of the capex. If they are able to do this they will be able to focus on other projects. They would be able to fund capitable development at perma hill/tocantinzinho/lamaque. I am not sure which asset's management would want to develop or sell, or which ones they would want to develop first. Lamaque seems to be a real focus for management, and we could only guess at what this capex might be. If they find a partner for skouries, I could see them focusing their attention to developing perma hill to further satisfy the Greeks, just my thoughts. Like I said I'm not entirely sure when they plan to start capital development on all these projects as they haven't talked about them much, but one this is for certain they will not have the cashflow to develop all of them at the same time. You could throw Tocantinzinho development in there, but Certej will be very expensive over a shor time frame, I estimate around 300m/year for two years, which would be too much for eldorado. If they space these projects out a little it might be possible with the last ones being completed around 2026-27ish. Eldorado could in theory be a 1M oz producer just beyond 5 years is management executes well. That is a very big IF I'd likely assign a probability of less than 35%.
Anyways congratz to all longs who got in a at a good price, and anyone else who stuck it in for a round trip. It has been a good investment thus far, my original 50k investment has turned into 150k in just over a year. I still remain long but have sold 30% of my shares to fund another investment. Let's hope that management continues to execute well (or continues to get lucky, I'm still not sure yet). The key here going forward is to monitor their cash position and their future game plan. If the ATM equity program becomes maxed out, I'd expect for them to apply for another prospectus to dilute even more, so that is something we will need to watch for. It makes no sense to me to be paying off the debt with diltuion at the prices they were doing it at.