RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Inside info direct from sourceI get what you're saying Watch, but you're view of it is not large enough. In 2013, when they tried taking the ACMPR licenses away, there wasn't legalized cannabis, and there certain weren't legal cannabis producers with a "sales license". The argument made then, that made sense was that "People needed a way to access their medicine," and so the grey markets were created... Today the access to that medicine is as easy as it gets, and no longer makes sense. I'm not arguing that they will take away ACMPR licenses, I'm saying that they will downsize the licenses people can hold. No one person needs 2,000 plants worth of cannabis to support their medical needs for the year.
The main argument being made today under the new legal framework of "Everyone who wants to smoke can" is one of safety. Why do you think that the main regulating body of Canada that is behind the laws is Health Canada.
Medical dispensaries, if granted access to the markets on a permanent basis, will also have to follow the guidelines under the new health canada "health and safety" consumption. Which means they would have to get their Cannabis from the same LP's that health canada has an oversight on. The only argument they could win to help the consumer in that regards is a discounted prescription allowing a medical card holder to pick up larger quantities of cannabis, and probably stronger edibles?... They can't in good faith keep both sides of the legal framework alive, it's not how a social government works. Taxes need to be collected and safe consumption needs to be controlled.
As for John Conroy, he'll take all the money the cannabis community is willing to throw in his direction and keep this fight going as long as possible, even if he doesn't see it working out in the favour of the same people he helped to become rich. The fight he had in front of him was an easy one before, this one he's going to lose.
watchmeplz wrote: Goober, in my opinion, I respect your post but this isn't correct, let me explain. The prices on the black market before legalization were higher indeed due to supply and demand, there wasn't LPs around producing product. If you noticed months before rec legalization prices started to fall on the black market because of supply and now have multiplied falling with the LPs being in the landscape.(look at all the LPs inventory and wholesale numbers). The analogy about people not wanting to grow is farce. Look at statscan numbers of illegal cannabis in the market. To say the ACMPR personal production licenses will be altered is incorrect too, the federal govt tried in 2013 to try to get rid of the licenses completely and could not. Not to mention John Conroy going to battle to allow medical illegal dispenseries to exist permanently. The qty. able to produce under the acmpr pp is limited to the doctors prescribed amount which is not a small amount as your referring too. A license holder can possess more than 500 plants x4 licenses at a facility, no small amount at all. If the govt could "close" these what you call "holes" then why have they not already? Were YEARS into legalization and nothing has changed. There's still illegal dispenceries everywhere, so clearly the theory about them wearing out thin or disappearing is not true.
Go0B3r wrote: There is no magic juice here Watch. It's all a matter of using a product that is safe for consumption. Are there people too poor to afford legalized cannabis? Yes, and I imagine they've started to consumer more of it since the price has gone down on the black market, not spending less. You're not seeing the consumer machine at work here.
When black market Cannabis dries up(and it will), because it becomes too much work for too little of a return, people will have no choice but to buy Legal. Will they be able to afford it, of course, just not in the same quantities they were able to get before. I imagine they'll subsidize their habit with some black market products. 20 years ago, a gram of cannabis used to be $15, and THC quality was all people were looking for than. Since, people have become more mindful of what they are putting in their bodies, through the spread of information. Even McDonalds has had to adhere to these changes and create a menu of healthy choices for people. I imagine parents of teenagers who smoke cannabis will even tell them to stop buying from their friends unless it's government cannabis.
I can make home made booze and sell it for $3 a bottle, and make back 200% returns on my time, but there are maybe one or two friends that would buy it from me. The hard core consumer you're speaking of that doesn't care what they throw in their bodies, are actually becoming a very small portion of the equation. I have friends that grow enough quality cannabis to feed a whole neighbourhood, but no one wants to smoke it, even FREE! lol. It almost always goes into edibles!
People are willing to spend a little more for a safe quality product. Oh and the people growing ACMPR that are selling to the small number of dispensaries, also have to get their products tested, regularly for restocking. The batches that end up with too much mould in them, end up going into edibles and extracts(and we've seen how those shortcuts effect the population). Packaging and Taxes is the main savings, and both of those are incentives for the government to intervene. Never under estimate the idea of "safety", driven by greed at a political level in a social change environment. All the government has to do is reduce the amounts the ACMPR license holders can grow in order to get at the tax funds locked in this industry, and the Black market will go belly up. They do have the power to do that, and WHEN they do, there will be license holders that will opt to use their grow space for legal use, which will put the in the same game as the rest of these huge companies, taxes, packaging, middle men.
watchmeplz wrote: In my opinion, next two years? This company is long gone before then. But still, that's the magic juice you've been listening to all this time, same thing we heard before legalization a few years ago. It's still comes down to price my friend, not sales outlets, the distribution channels on black market have been established friend-to-friend/to illegal dispensaries a long time before LPs existed and as long as LPs price has 3 levels of taxation, a whole team of QC, responsible people, growers, sop to adhere to, in depth testing protocols, and crop loss (where LPs have to destroy full harvests), packaging vessels, labelling, marketing teams, then there's no way pricing will ever compete, everytime LP prices drop, so does black market. Look at statscan numbers. Cannabis does not have the same lineage as any other industry. Alcohol did not having licensing to allow production with another type of legal production license.
Go0B3r wrote: How are these "Legal" producers(I'm guessing you're talking about ACMPR) going to get shelf space on any of the 800+ brick and mortar stores being thrown up in Ontario in the next two years? The LEGAL flower ACMPR license holder grow, can only be sold on the black market, and done so ILLEGALLY... The last crop 7Acres produced was at 48c a gram post production with the highest yields in the industry @ 74grams per plant avg... I'm no rocket scientist, but didn't they just tighten the belt some more in Q3, and are still in the process of further rightsizing operations where they can... How low will the cost per gram go? Even with the governements cut of a buck a gram, they are already producing products at the same cost as the black market. Soon to have proper infrustracture in place for selling, and the post man delivering to the door... No chance!
From what you've been saying,you're not just short on this company, you're short the whole industry over, aren't you? betting against the whole social movement of legalizing cannabis... fighting change isn't healthy, just a heads up human to human.
watchmeplz wrote: In my opinion, George, theres no coming back from this, you have a LEGAL producing competitor that can absolutely destory the LP's price. Doesn't matter what is said after. see r. vs. allard.
George141 wrote: brentkosta wrote: I dont disagree with you that the entire sector is crumbling. But when when supreme was at 2.00 they had no irons in the fire, so to speak. They were not progressing to be a strong company. They were no where near completion of the facility. None of their assets were worth anything. They still arent. ie Lesotho is down 90% in value.
So if people used the same language now as they did before, how can they be trusted?
George141 wrote: brentkosta wrote: maritimedreamer wrote: oh opt..... sometimes i wonder how rosey those glasses are my friend....... Supreme needs to prove themselves all over again... and a takeout is very possible at these deflated prices...... right now our focus should be on when 2.0 is rolling out and what this new partnership will bring us.....
Just a reminder that Opt was saying this stuff over $2.00 a share and if they near insolvency and the sp gets to below a nickel, he'll say the same thing. He is not to be trusted.
..Brent...when Supreme was at $2.00...Canopy was probably in $60's, Apharia was in the teens, same with Aurora,and many others were at multiples of what they are today. Regulations and slow distributions slowed thigs down...rightly or wrongly is not for me to say. Things were moving very fast and the Government had to slow things down. Every company suffered as a result. Some have and some will go out of business, and some will survive. Supreme evolutionised from grass roots level. It did everything right as far as regulations...very painstakingly process. But the location was grand ,the company was welcomed in the community, the product was recognized with awards, the construction is complete. These are facts. All companies that will survive are down 50, 60 %...The situation is improving rapidly from here. Fowler left with a few millions, no doubt, he probably had enough of the pressures of the regulations, Nav tried but may have not been up to the job...Collin Moore may be the right man, hopefully to turn this company around. We were all hoping for bigger things than where we are, however this price is a great entry point...the next financials will be way better.
...The dynamics have totally changed for the better. Where as before hype and anticipation was leading the sentiment, we now have reality set in. Reality in the sense that the government is opening up mega outlets, the price has come down (but that's ok because Supreme has 448,000 sq.ft of grow space so it can accommodate lower prices. We know the quality is there. So yes, I am optimistic because corrections in the industry have been made. In 2014 Supreme post 5 to1 split was trading at .40 cents. On a scale from 1 to 10 they were a 3 at best compared to today. It only stands to reason the company is worth a multiple of .40 cents. The reason we are where we are is regulations have slowed progress, which has affected the bottom line. However changes are occurring and going the right way. Canadians for the most part are and have been responsible when it comes to recreational pot. That is nice to see and it may have been a worry for government and law enforcement. will there be people that disobey the law...yes... but in the long run they will adjust either trough personal experience or learning the pitfalls of breaking the law..(i.e.driving high). Little by little mj consumption will become more mainstream and unless Trudeau loses the next election and the Conservatives re-criminalise mj use I honestly do not see any more predictable setbacks...unless something totally out of the ordinary occurs like a weather catastrophy that destroys the greenhouses...maintain