RE:Can anyone give us a short recap of the presentation of Hey Goaweigh.
As folks in London seem to be asking the same question and losing their collective minds, heres a summary that will hopefully dispell confusion.
- This week the pressure test equipment gets removed from the cascadura well. Baring any mechnical trouble, none expected, they should provide results for testing on the upper portion of Cascadura mid March. Call it around March 15th.
- 350 feet will be completed in the upper portion of the Cascadura well
- Chinook will look to drill in April with testing planned for June-ish
- Royston is a bit contigent on which rig they use. Paul talks about potentially sourcing another rig thats bigger for Aug/Sept. However if they can't source that rig they will use to the rig from Chinook as it finishes up, which may mean July/Aug drill start.
- Paul talked about potentially using the rig drilling chinook to go back to drill another cascadura well. This well would be intended to drill the deep prospect that the initial well never hit. I believe they would only do this if they managed to secure the bigger rig for Royston.
Questions you didn't ask but are worth while notes from the conference call:
- Coho production online mid year. Expects 4-5 million cashflow a year from this well.
- Coho likely has follow up locations.
- Cascadura will look to be online by 2021. Touchstone has recieved some interest from national pipeline and infastructure company about building their infastructure for them at Cascadura.
- Cascadura has two follow up locations, the deep prospect and the shallow zone they penetrated with the first Cascadura well. Shallower zone is the Cruze formation, which is a well known producing zone in the west of the island responsible for all the heavy oil.
- Updated reserve report being worked on now, will include Coho but not Cascadura as the test wasn't complete before year end. I would expect this late April.
- Long term gas prices in TT will float around $3.15-$3.80 with a netback of $1.8-2.0 per mcf.
- Touchstone has 3D seismic on Coho/Cascadura and Chinook. Considering they hit Cascadura quite high compared to what they previously interpreted the team will need to re-model the size of prospect. My sense is that given they hit the prospect higher and got a fair bit more gross/net sand than they were expecting that this should lead to quite a large amount of gas in place and recoverable. As they have the 3D seismic they should be able to reinterpret it with the Cascadura well to get a fairly accurate estimate of size of prospect, other than of course where the pool ends.
- Paul talked about having 11 prospects, for which we know 4. He thinks there could be many more wells to drill in the area.
- Royston prospect sits next to another large prospect directly south.
- Comments from Paul on TT reworking the JV agreements on the west side leases that could lead to better development economics
My take is this. The company has actually already found what they need in Cascadura. The company now needs time to reinterpret their 3D seismic and the Cascadura well to get a more accurate estimate of the size of the discovery. As they reinterpret the 3D seismic in the area, this could lead to more prospects. It's interest that Paul felt comfortable bring up the prospect count in the area. Clearly management is thinking this is the case.
My best guess on potential Timeline of events:
- March 15th - Cascadura upper zone flow test
- April 15- April 30th - Reserve Report Update - Reported results last year March 27th, pretty sure they dont need to report until April 30th tho.
- April 15th - 30th - Spud of Chinook
- May 1-31st - Potential Update from TT leases ?
- June 1st - Logs from Chinook ?
- June 30th - Production test Chinook ?
- August / Sept - Royston Spud?
- August / Sept - Cascadura 2 Spud?
- Sept / Oct - Royston Test?
- Sept / Oct - Cascadura 2 Test?
Hope this helps.