RE:RE:RE:Fourth Quarter ResultsHi Savy,
You could be right, but I don’t think there is much to suggest an insider known big negative Q4 surprise. I chalk the drop in share price as a combination of headlines and sentiment against Canadian energy. The protests, blockades and press attention on the CGL & TMX (also announced revised cost estimate) over your defined timeframe likely lead to some forecasting increased probabilities for further delays or cancelations – which shook some investors. The coronavirus and the corresponding energy price drops only exacerbated that. Moogul – who has insightful posts on here – summarizes the political sentiment many share “energy in Canada is dead”. I see this sentiment maintaining for a while, but when people are throwing in the towel / frustrated it can lead to opportunities. OT: Moogul – I just msged you to discuss TII.v.
I think these projects will ultimately go through (Macro is making progress on their CGL spreads every month) and the cash flow from these justify an attractive return from the market price (below a conservative book value) – with an effective buy back program it could be very very attractive. However, investing against a frustrated investor sentiment is hard - with a retail investor base, the volatility to headlines is heightened.