RE:Bonterra will weather the stormI think the Syncrude fire (which started last sunday) is likely impacting the differential (yay) and the curve suggests (for now) that we are going to see sub $3 diffs for the next several months.
the Russia/Opec tension is unsettling....by design IMO. Russia has a big natural gas distribution business they are trying to protect and LNG exports from the US are a direct threat to that....plus they are pissed at trump for the sanctions. who knows how much pain they are looking to inflict, but i think it will be relatively short lived because it's probably better if they kill producers' ability to grow rather then killing them outright, or the assets will just end up in the hands of a new set of idiots with clean balance sheets. If demand destruction is significant, look for a cut in the next few months. Silver lining is shale is probably done growing for a while....maybe until there is a sustained rise in prices. Might not come back until we get closer to $100 than $50.