TSX:HSE.PR.B - Post by User
Comment by
oilandgasmickon Mar 07, 2020 11:35am
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Post# 30778962
RE:RE:You Guys On This BB Make Me LAUGH !!!
RE:RE:You Guys On This BB Make Me LAUGH !!!Thanks MRBB- yes all these buzzards who never so much as met LKS think they know his strategy but of course its just some guys in military fatigues chirping away in a sub basement somewhere. Netflix should make some movies about these people. "15 cameras" or something like that.
Anyway, unfortunately I think there may be more downside this week as it becomes clear that OPEC+ is dysfunctional and the Russians are determined to sink U.S. shale producers. They see their chance and they know that this time the American banks are going to be much more reluctant to ride to the rescue than they were in 2016.
I think that once (if) we get below 4 bucks then that's a good time to step in. The "on hand" cash component amounts to around 1.8 bucks per share and we have to assume that (upgraders/refineries/pipelines/service stations/reserves) -debt are worth 2 bucks a share?
A good strategy now for HSE (apart from a buyback) would be to further reduce cap-ex. The virus problem and the overproduction won't be going away any time soon so what is the rush in terms of bringing on new production? This is something that the industry as a whole just doesn't get. Investors want cash returned and so do analysts so give them want they want to reduce at least some of the downward pressure. It also helps in terms of maintaining the dividend.
Granted, you can't just stop some projects in the middle of construction but there must be ways of curtailing capex for the next 2 few years until U.S. shale oil production starts to ease off. CNQ chopped their capex this week so why not HSE? Obviously, CNQ is a much better run company than HSE so perhaps following their lead might be prudent.