RE:Worried Newtrader1982 wrote:
i feel like even if this is a great company in a time of crisis people aren't exactly thinking 10 years down the road. I believe this stock is going to be held down until warrants expire. And possibly much longer. Although I want to believe it's going to just rocket back relatively quickly I just don't think it will. I hope I am wrong and tt is right that in 2 weeks we are at 3 that would be wonderful for me. However I just don't see it happening they kept telling us we have too much debt and people were very close to insolvency. Now we have the small shock happening that too many people can't afford. This is gonna get worse in my opinion. When people start going bankrupt and foreclose on homes that will get the ball rolling.
I don't think that TT is right that we will see this stock at $3 within 2 weeks, though I wouldn't completely rule it out. Depending on what is said at the earnings announcement (I don't know when that is), we may well see the stock rebound to $3 or higher at that point.
Of about 40 stocks that I am tracking, everything is down. XBC is the only one I can think of that is more or less the same price as its low last week. While still subject to the same negative sentiment that is pervading everything, it has disconnected a bit from the market. I think it is benefiting from a recognition of its potential and the fact that it probably isn't held in any ETFs or mutual funds. Those are often held by less sophisticated investors who only start reacting when there are ugly headlines. I have no idea what proportion of those have been dumped, but I suspect that the fund redemptions will carry on for a while. It is significant for the overall market because when people redeem their funds, the fund managers have no choice but to dump indiscriminately. XBC is spared that.
One thing to keep in mind is that there is a lot of money looking for a home. It is fleeing the stock market but bonds aren't exactly great (though some people have done well due to falling bond yields). How many people are going to stick it all in the bank? In some countries you have to pay the bank to hold your money (if you have a lot). So a stock like XBC, which isn't tied to consumer markets has some real attractiveness. Additionally, to the extent that governments ramp up government spending, this company will benefit.
I don't disagree that the economic situation is going to get worse. It is probably going to be the ugliest economic environment that anyone on this board has ever seen. But I tend to be in agreement with TT that we either have seen or are pretty close to the lows for XBC.