RE:RE:RE:Inventory build forecast & nightmares in April & May &......
Kramer, Capital eEficiency is the number you are looking for. For oil sands projects it's about $100,000/bopd in year 1 but with minor decline and higher opex.
For YGR, check out the corp presentation, it's only about $10,000/boepd (notice its for boEpd not bOpd) but with a high decline after year 1. So, to add 1000boepd using IP365 = $10,000x1000 = $10M. But corporate decline in the year is 35% so to stay flat at 13,000 boepd you must add back 4550boepd of new production = $45.5M. Cash flow at today's prices is about $25M. In fact, for this exercise, YGR uses $15000/boepd capital efficiency so it could be up to $68M of capex per year to hold production flat. And more risk is added if the Chedder sweet spot disappears.
Also, why hold 1000boepd off the market after you spend $10M to get it? Are oil/gas prices going to rise faster than your cost of debt serviving or the limitations of the debt covenant?