UEX Corp UEXCF

Current Uranium Spot Price Rise VS Cigar Lake Flood in 2006

[MegaMAxTZ]

So few people in the general public domain still have ANY clue about Nuclear Power and the importance of Uranium in generating electricity around the world. This Cigar Lake closing which has been anticipated by many here is now upon us. 4-6 weeks closed forget it - will be at least a year and likely more. IMHO

Predicting the future, one must look into the past and back in time to December 1, 2004

Dec 1, 2004    Spot at $ 20.60/LB.
Sept 1, 2005   Spot up 50 % at 31.60/LB  - Why ?  No floods (yet) 
Jan 1, 2006    Spot at $ 37.50/LB
May 1, 2006   Spot at $ 43.00/LB   After 1st Cigar Lake Flood.
Sep 1, 2006   Spot at $ 54.80/LB word is gettting around about the U situation and shortages
Dec, 1, 2006  Spot at $ 72.00/LB  After 2nd flood and things are getting serious.

And then after this up it goes way above $ 100/LB in 2007 until the fall of 2007.

So how does all this compare to now with this Cigar Lake closing in April of 2020 ?  What was the longest Long Term contract written back in 2007 when prices through the roof ? Where any  contracts signed for more than 12 years ?? Unlikely.

June 1, 2007  LT at $ 95.00/LB             Now expired for sure.
June 1, 2008  LT still at $ 80.00/LB                    "
Jan 1, 2011    LT still at $ 71.50/LB       Soon to expire but for sure

The guy's that signed at $70 +/LB    pre FUKU in 2011 will never ever ever make that mistake again when the bottom dropped out post FUKU. So they stay on the sidelines and/or shop the Spot bits or else do nothing.

How fast can the U LBS be fired up again now with CL closure ? World is down to about less than 120 M produced and consuming 188 M and growing.

Took 2 years from Dec of 2004 to Dec of 2006 for the price to go up by $ 50/LB. That means that April of 2022 will see prices well above $ 60/LB - how can this not happen ?

Utility buyers REALLY must know something OR must not be interested if prices go way way  up " "who cares wont affect the cost of running our Nuclear Power Plants by much "  OR something else is my suspicion. We shall see. U sector is certainly a good place to have funds these days.

MM