RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Anyone buying this rally?I am well aware that the hypothesis used in the analysis 42 days ago are noe completely useless.
Let me write my own assumptions in the new environment:
NA Oil rig count will be reduced by half in the next two months from 716 last week to under 400.
NA Natgas rig count will be reduced by 20% in the next 2 months, from 152 to 120. Nat gas rig count was 40% lower last week compare to the same period last year.
NA base decline rate for Natgas production 30%+.
With WTI under $25usd, I assume 60% of natgas project development with a rich liquid component do not make any economical sense for NA producers.
Same assumption with oil producers.
One parameter I can't make any assumption is Natgas consumption decline for the next 6 months. How does shutting a large part of the economy impact Natgas consumption...
Can I also assume no more gas pipelines disruption of service for 2020 in Canada?
We the above assumptions, I bet Natural Gas prices will pickup during the course of the year.