RE:Doug Ford Covid-19 Potential Projections Game Changer? just a quick few words on modeling. Modeling is use to make forecast when unknown variables exceed known variables. To make the model runs, the programmer need to make assumptions on the unknown variables. Unless the audience understood the assumptions and algos went behind the model simulation, forecast can be misrepresented, intentionally or unintentionally. Ex IPCC climate forecast which are all incorrect, in favor of the global warming narrative.
I'm not a biologist but i would ask simple questions like
1) since covid19 kill rate is highest for elders with pre-existing condition, overtime, there would be less and less of these subject left for the covid19 virus to kill. Does the model account for the declining remaining elders with some kind of illness and how do the scientists know how many living elders with pre-exisiting condition and type of pre-existing condition left as the outbreak proceed its course?
2) Over time, quarantine people behavior change, like start wearing more protective gears when going outside when situation is not improving or wearing less protective gears and go out more if the situation is declining. How is the model take account of changing human behavior
woodsmen wrote:
Ontario Premier Doug Ford promised Thursday that his government will release modelling tomorrow of potential death rates. "It's going to be stark," he said, adding it will be a "sobering discussion."
"It will be a real wake-up call. I don't believe in holding back figures in this crisis. We have to be fully transparent with the people of Ontario, no matter how hard it is."
He said he hopes the grim figures will convince people who have been defying stay-home requests — or flouting pleas to practice social distancing — to take pandemic planning more seriously.