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Chorus Aviation Inc T.CHR

Alternate Symbol(s):  CHRRF | T.CHR.DB.B | T.CHR.DB.C | T.CHR.DB.A

Chorus Aviation Inc. is a global aviation solutions provider and asset manager, focused on regional aviation. The Company’s primary business activities include contract flying, managing aircraft on behalf of fund investors and other third-party aircraft investors and/or owners, as well as maintenance, repair and overhaul services and pilot training. The Company operates through Regional Aviation Services segment. The Company offers contracted flying services within North America and also provides medical, logistical and humanitarian flight operations to Canadian and international customers. Its subsidiaries include Jazz Aviation LP, a regional airline in Canada and provider of regional air services under the Air Canada Express brand; Voyageur Aviation Corp., a provider of specialty charter, aircraft modifications, parts provisioning and in-service support services, and Cygnet Aviation Academy, an accredited training academy preparing pilots for direct entry into airlines.


TSX:CHR - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by bmbruceon Apr 07, 2020 6:18am
321 Views
Post# 30885635

RBC on recent developments

RBC on recent developmentsFollowing dividend cut + layoffs, see CHR as well- positioned to weather the storm Our view: While investors were likely disappointed with the announced dividend suspension, we view initiatives taken to preserve liquidity driving cash savings of ~$165MM in 2020 and providing CHR with the flexibility it needs to maneuver an uncertain macro backdrop. Current valuations look to be pricing in a near-worst case scenario, and we view the current dislocation as enticing for those who can stomach a more elevated risk profile. Key points: CHR provides update on COVID-19. Following its initial response to the pandemic on March 18th (see SPARC here), Chorus released a new update highlighted by: 1) a suspension of the dividend effective immediately; 2) a headcount reduction of ~3,000 employees; 3) a new US$100MM revolving credit facility with EDC; and 4) the deferral/delay of all anticipated aircraft deliveries for 2020. Estimates reduced. We have lowered our controllable revenue estimate by 41% to $443MM and our pass through revenue estimate by 38% to $129MM for full-year 2020. For the Regional Aircraft Leasing segment, we are lowering our revenue estimate to account for the anticipated delay/ deferral of aircraft deliveries out past 2020. Taken together our 2020E revenue goes to $967MM (from $1,458MM) and our 2021E revenue drops to $1,219MM (from $1,531MM). Fixed fee and contractual revenues offer protection. With fixed fee revenues expected to account for ~22% of 2020E consolidated revenues (and Regional Leasing expected to account for ~12%), we see a material portion of CHR's revenue stream as largely protected from headwinds currently impacting the airline industry. As such, we view the improved levels of visibility and predictability in the current environment as favorable relative to industry peers. Price target cut to $6 (from $9); reiterate Outperform rating. We have materially lowered our estimates to account for anticipated near-term headwinds amidst an unprecedented industry environment. Our 2020E EBITDA moves to $332MM (from $426MM) and our 2021E EBITDA moves to $391MM (from $476MM). When applied to our target multiples (which we have elected to keep unchanged), we arrive at our price target of $6 (from $9). Financial viability linked to AC. Ultimately we view Chorus' financial viability as directly tied to Air Canada, given the importance of the CPA to the company's operations. Accordingly, we view the strength of AC's current liquidity position as commensurate to the counter party risk Chorus, and view the company as well-positioned from a liquidity perspective to ride out the storm.
Bullboard Posts