RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:AC and TRZ deal$12.50, its not inventented, its how much money Transat will have in the bank by May 2nd (estimated). AC would be buying TRZ with their own money. At $13/share, or above, AC will have to spend their own money, which they are increasingly unlikly to do, being that the corona virus crisis is far from over.
Pay Transat the $40 million penalties? According to Desjardins, Transat has a current monthly burn rate of $60 million. That would amount to three pathetic weeks of extra life. If they manage to get reduced or forgiven rent and lease payments etc, that burn rate may become half or less. Either way, $40 million is a drop on a hot rock. A government would have to save them.
Worth $3.50/share if the deal gets called off? I will bet it goes to $1/share if it gets called off. Lets see...Tredeau said 12 to 18 months until an immunization comes available. Lets take best case scenario of 6 months for an immunization. The summer season is sunk. Six months from now we are into October....immunizations start. So does the winter season. Looks like the winter season will also be close to a virtual bust. Maybe some business at rock bottom prices going into early 2021. Profitabability??? Zero. Summer of 2021 could be the first profitable season coming. It could be real good. We can travel again!!! It could be increadible due to pent up demand.....if only it weren't for....all those damn vouchers!!!! Oh yes, the gauntlet of having to provide a service to people who already paid, and through whom's money we burned months and months ago. Don't forget those vouchers....they will get cashed in, and prevent companies from selling seats to people who would actually provide them with NEW cash.
I hope it doesn't play out like this. Someone please present a happier ending to my prediction!!
Happy Easter, and stay safe.