GREY:ATBPF - Post by User
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bringon10baggeron Apr 11, 2020 3:24pm
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Post# 30899270
RE:RE:RE:RE:April 8 interview with Dan Legault
RE:RE:RE:RE:April 8 interview with Dan LegaultThanks T6 & Qwery for the comments, Cooincidently Dan mentioned moving to the big playhouse in fall but neglected on how they were getting there. Could it be mgmt are aligning events strategically to avoid having to do a RS event? How could this materialize???Just maybe.....after 2b data readout, preliminary partnering negotiations commence, and as we all know negotiations are simply that, positioning to acquire the BEST deal for both parties.Obviously there is an acute interest from a big pharma, with having analyzed post trial data to date and subsequently will be there when the 2b data is released. I would believe this is encouraging and this mgmt team does not portray themselves as being hardballers, holding out for a better offer type of team, but would settle for a fair reasonable deal with the best in class NSAID, Dr W. has devoted many years and would cherish the day ATB-346 makes it to market. All that being said, I have a vision of a partnerring deal with the big pharma during the summer pre phase 3 thus, establishing a SP necessary to go on the big board without the reverse split.......IMO
TriumphSpitSix wrote: Would always rather see an uplisting without the need for a reverse split but given that the company is on the upswing, I'd grit my teeth and bear it I suppose.
One of the NASDAQ listing options has a 5-day closing price requirement of only $2.00/sh which may very well be achievable without a reverse split. Of course they will want to overshoot the minimum price target somewhat to pad for future volatility, so worst case scenario I could see maybe a 1-for-3, assuming a doubling (and stabilizing) of the share price in the $1.30-$1.40 range ($0.93-$1.00 USD) after Ph. 2 results are released.
A 1-for-3 would give them a NASDAQ share price of $3.90-$4.20 ($2.79-$3.00 USD) with a decent amount of padding, allowing up to a 67% loss in share price before falling under the NASDAQ $1.00 minimum price requirement.
A 1-for-5 would put them in the $6.50-$7.00 bracket ($4.64-$5.00 USD) with maybe too much of a volatility cushion since as a general rule shareholders don't like consolidations even though the overall value of the shares stays the same.
Maybe a 1-for-4 would be the happy medium at $5.20-$5.60 ($3.71-$4.00 USD). Good padding of up to 75% of the share price, less consolidation, everyone's happy?
Just speculating...
qwerty22 wrote: A good example of capital strengthening negotiation position is LOXO who raised $120m to fund their drug going to market once approved but ended up being bought out by Eli Lille's six months later. Presumably the big pharma had already started DD by then so the cash raise was a statement that we can do this alone if need be, no cheap offers.
If the Ph3 is $35mil and they go to market to raise that amount then if they can do that with the market cap around $300mil then we are looking at 10-15% dilution. A share consolidation from a position of strength after that would be just fine in advance of a Nasdaq listing. Then we can see just how much interest the company can attract in the US.
Yep on a few fronts things get rolling in May presumably after a late Apr data readout. Followed by and exciting Summer and Fall.
TriumphSpitSix wrote: Just a couple pick-ups from the interview:
The section beginning at 1:00:29 discussing being a post-Phase 2 company and upcoming big pharma partnering negotiations is very interesting.
Legault:
"Also, a blockbuster drug such as ourselves undergoes a lot of due diligence, so these deals take 12 to 18 months to negotiate and conclude. We're already talking to some large pharmas, and I mean, our plan all along was to do that post-data, so in May we will start engaging in these conversations."
He also discusses the necessity of being able to negotiate from a position of strength, including the possibility of doing Phase 3 trials themselves (estimated at 1:03:40 to cost ~$35MM) by doing a deal in the capital markets at a much higher company valuation to secure Phase 3 funds. This would primarily be a strategy to buttress the company's negotiating position with Big Pharma but also a necessary component of moving forward to Phase 3 and commercialization on their own, although this isn't the company's desire.
Legault:
"Our drug would clearly sell in the small numbers of billions of dollars a year, so these are important negotiations."
Cameo appearance:
It's possible that Robert McWhirter made an off screen appearance during this interview at 1:05:52. YVR Trader takes a question from someone listening in named "R McWhirter" asking about the value of the addressible market. Legault recounts a conservative estimate of only $20B. Haha.
The host mentions having Legault back on for another chat in "early May sometime" after Ph 2 results are released so this along with Legault's comment about beginning partnering discussions in May do still seem to indicate an April release date.