RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:2020, gonna be a bright, bright sunshiny year!TIMING is everything.
All of the factors that caused copper prices and M&A to spike after the global financial crisis are in play now, and I'd say many are more acute this time around. CAPEX deferals at a time of rising copper demand, stimulus spending, hard currency (the USD in particlular) devaluation, inelastic supply, etc., all still with us, but this time the scale of stimulus is greater, the threat to the $ and the consequent rise in value of $ denominated assets greater, the shift to renewables and electrification is well underway and legislated in many of the world's largest economies, and we're at the end of a decade of dramatic declines in copper discoveries (2007 and 2008 saw more discoveries than the entire decade following).
Within 26 months of copper prices bottoming out during the global financial crisis (>$1.50 pound in Dec 2008) they reached triple that (>$4.50 pound in February 2011). M&A in the sector also reached a peak in 2011. Investors in copper plays between the GFC and 2011 peak in prices did very well.
This time around there's far more urgency on the part of the majors to fill their copper production pipeline, fewer brownfield expansion opportuities (they've been exhausted) and far fewer copper projects available to purchase. I suspect investors now have at least as good a prospect as they did iin 2008/2009, probably better.
I've heard Oroco talk about an 18-25 month process to complete drilling, met. testing, and get all the other pieces together and this would coincide perfectly if we see any kind of a repeat of the last cycle. So, ya, I don't see a buyout before 18- 24 months out, but I do see incremental increases in value between then and now, with perhaps the quickest and largest % rise coming this year as a result of the 3DIP and first dozen drill holes providing confirmation (and the markets snapping back by Q3/Q4, and the following year one of steady development drilling, lab work, ESG progress, etc. There's my two (copper plated) cents.