The Street Analysts Outlook on OilLooks like OPEC has failed to push oil higher. Mexico is not playing ball & 10 mil barrel cut is not enough to fill the 30 mil demand hole.
The smartest guys on the Street - Goldman Sachs ("Goldman Sucks"), UBS ("Union Bandits Sussie") & Deutsche Bank (Douche Bank") are all predicting Brent crude, where Nigerian oil is being sold, will fall to $20 this year..
It is unbelievable that AOI has reiterated the guidance for 2020 & 2021 when practically all companies have withdrawn their guidance in light of Covid-19, including AOI's own operator Chevron.
AOI's syndicated international banks could be demanding more margin on its loans based on the much lower present value reserves calculus with the sharp drop in oil. I see a major asset impairment writedown coming on IFRS policy as AOI's reserves value has been decimated. The cash flow guidance is also based on oil trading over $70+ per barrel in 2021 and the out years.
I expect AOI could fall to $0.35 - 0.45 by end of Q4. Take a look at Lundin's SNM with 27% interest in an oil field in Kurdistan Iraq in partnership with Abu Dhabi Govt producing 50,000 barels/day. That co. is struggling to pay its debts & the damn stock is trading at 4 cents only.