Antibe Therapeutics Inc(Pre-Merger) ATBPF

Any thoughts on a speculative buy out price?

[aussyspitz]

Just a guess but here is mine total annual global sales NSAIDS is approximately 20B Antibe's investor slide presentation pegged it at 11B but in the latest April 8 interview Dan Legault indicated 20B which is probably more accurate based on the data I have seen.

Anticipated to capture 20% of market by year 3 with market patent protection of 7.5 years in North America and 20 years rest of world. 20% of 20B = 4B. 7.5 years x 4B = 30B subtract approx 5B for less than 4B annual sales in first 2 years = 25B.

I personally don't think Antibe has any intention of manufacturing and ramping up a sales force so price to sales imo would be more appropriately applied to whomever would buy us out. My thinking is 12% (typical sales royalty) of 25B total projected sales would equate to about 3B. Depending on what you use for total outstanding shares 355M or 281M  I am speculating a post phase 3 buyout of between approximately $8.00 to $11 per share.

If the buyout offer comes before Phase 3 I would anticipate a buyout offer approximately 30% lower or between $5 and $7 a share.

Anyone else have any thoughts?