RE:RE:Any thoughts on a speculative buy out price?MUG, I consulted three different Magic 8-Balls online and received definitive answers to my questions, framed in such a way as to pin Antibe's acquisition timeline down with certainty. These are the definitive Magic 8-Ball sites, trusted by tens (maybe?) of people around the world, so we can all rest assurred this is how it will go down with Nostradaman certainty...
1. Will Antibe be acquired
before beginning Ph. 3 trials for ATB-346?
eightball.tridelphia.net -- Yes, definitely.
Ok, good! indra.com/8ball -- YOU MAY RELY ON IT.
I knew it! ask8ball.net -- Outlook not so good.
What do you know about anything?! 2. Will Antibe be acquired
before completing Ph. 3 trials for ATB-346?
eightball.tridelphia.net -- Without a doubt.
Confirmation 1. indra.com/8ball -- IT'S DECIDELY SO.
Confirmation 1. ask8ball.net -- Don't count on it.
Idiot! 3. Will Antibe be acquired
after completing Ph. 3 trials for ATB-346?
eightball.tridelphia.net -- My sources say no.
Confirmation 2. indra.com/8ball -- MY REPLY IS NO.
Confirmation 2. ask8ball.net -- Very doubtful.
Basher! So, you can see from these definitive results that Antibe will be acquired without even needing to embark on Ph. 3 studies. Two votes for "before beginning Ph. 3 trials" in Question 1, with confirmation votes in Question 2 and 3 that acquisition will not happen during Ph. 3 or after completion ofo Ph. 3 because Antibe will already have been acquired. Easy Peasy!
Nevermind the ask8ball.net answers. They're obviously just Negative Nancy bashers whose answer to any question is No. I asksed it whether I needed to go pee and it said "My sources say no," so I'm still holding it and wondering who they have spying on me...
MUGMODs wrote: It is very much a moving target when it comes to the value of Antibe and the value of the first drug.
I have been under the impression that the first drug will sell for anywhere between $300MM and $600MM and we would garner a biger royalty payment at the $300MM mark - with no royalty (straight buyout) at the $600MM mark.
This is me guessing only.
Then - depending on how many Big Pharma companies show an interest to bid, one of the bidders could send a message that they are not F-ing around. One pharma may pull out all the stops and make a bid for the entire company in order to get what they want and to provide shareholders what they want and to start creating an H2S powerhouse (especially if we are years ahead of any competition).
It is good that a 250 page edition of the British Journal of Medicine is out there/will be out there on H2S - probably well timed for our needs - to create excitement.
Antibe will be happy enough to sell the first drug and continue developing the others ... so this is where all the unknowns come in.
If we sell only the first drug and let's assume we get to $1.50-$3 per share on the market, you know we will be doing a reverse split going into September in order to meet the NASDAQ requirements associated with being on that exchange. You want to be at least a $10 stock because you don't want to ride the minimum share price at any time over the next couple years - that's the last thing you want to worry about. At a minimum, you are looking at a 1 for 5 reverse split and it could be up to a 1 for 10 reverse split.
I wouldn't get too caught up in the reverse split - with a growing and exciting entity like Antibe (if we are talking blockbusters), none of this really matters unless we skrew it up some way on the business/science side.
We could be looking at an early "full" buyout, a later "full" buyout or no "full" buyout at all. Shake the Magic 8 Ball to figure that one out.
What matters most ... from a win-win opportunity for shareholders and a large pharma (with respect to a full buyout) is a mitigated chance of failure in the full drug family. We need to see a successful 2B, a good plan for Phase 3, further development and good results on 352 (fast-track through FDA would be excellent) and some good initial results in bringing 340 to the next step.
In order for us to see a top dollar payout for a Phase 3 company, confidence must exist in the family of drugs. If a Big Pharma is unwilling to pay well for the family of drugs ... the company is only selling the first drug. At this point, that is very possible ... but ... with more information ... anything could happen here ... anything.
I am only assuming the attempted sale of the first drug at this point.
With good data - we will sell the first drug.
Other than that ... I wouldn't bet on anything else at this time.
Too many possibilities !
Just my opinion.