This whole rally is one giant dead cat bounceIf they let everyone out of quarantine we are going to see dead bodies being taken away in army trucks which will cause a slowdown of the economy from fear and panic (voluntary abstinence from participating in the economy — a negative ripple effect on those who are participating).
If we keep the quarantine going until the virus has run its course (according to Bill gates about 14 months) we are going to see 30%+ of the participating labor force on the PLANET (corona virus is not a local event) lose their jobs, homes or their businesses. Remember that figure is the general population. Only able-bodied men and women between the ages of 18&65, excluding children, elderly and the disabled.
The QE that's happening around the world is going to lead to generations of debt and insane inflation and is at best a patch solution to a long term problem. I can't imagine a world where the stock market "rallies" from this sh1tstorm in a matter of a year let alone a month leading to a full recovery. If you think that... HAHA...
It's just a matter of time before we start seeing a second bottom come in. If you have half a brain, you have purchased or are purchasing physical gold (not to get rich but to keep from being poor)... or if you have the stomach for volatility you purchased solid gold producers in "safe jurisdictions"
If I were to bet my last dollar it would be that the bounce sits somewhere below previous highs around the 24000-25000DJIA and then begins a slow and steady descent of death while money is handed out in wheelbarrows. Bottom will sit around 12000-15000DJIA if we are lucky.
I imagine this scenario unfolding in the following 2 ways:
1. Some external force like God decides that warm weather kills the virus and it magically goes away leading to a act like nothing happens scenario.
Or the more likely scenario.
2. The government figures out that these half assed measures are leading to neither eliminating the virus nor getting any closer to resistance.
Public pressure mounts as a result of the public losing their livelihoods and prolonging the inevitable they open the floodgates and let nature take its course because they have a reasonable amount of hospital beds and ventilators to at least service most of the sick.
Restarting the economy ever so slowly.... with years of repercussions. ...
Unless civil unrest starts. than it won't matter if you have gold or cash... survival of the fittest ... Suddenly it won't be so evolutionarily advantageous to have a desk job... Maybe the guys we used to make fun of for breaking rocks with a sledgehammer and tarring roofs will have their day at the top of the food chain again.
No easy way out my friends.