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BetaPro Crude Oil Leveraged Daily Bull ETF T.HOU

Alternate Symbol(s):  HROZF | HZOZF

HOU¿s investment objective is to seek daily investment results, before fees, expenses, distributions, brokerage commissions and other transaction costs, that endeavour to correspond to up to two times (200%) the daily performance of the Horizons Crude Oil Rolling Futures Index. HOU is denominated in Canadian dollars.


TSX:HOU - Post by User

Post by RichyRich$on Apr 17, 2020 1:50am
462 Views
Post# 30920300

HOU A GOOD HOLD FOR 3 WEEKS. HERE'S THE TRUTH

HOU A GOOD HOLD FOR 3 WEEKS. HERE'S THE TRUTHPeople are giving you false information and false panic. Read further down and I will explain how there was no erosion from yesterday to today! Yes you don't want to hold HOU for 12 month. But when Oil is at an 18 Year Low ready to rebound and HOU 94% down from 3 months ago... Nows the Time to Buy and Hold for 3 Weeks! First off... I looked into the truth. The reason for the perceived erosion from yesterday to today is because HOU is closing exactly at the June WTI Oil Futures price exactly at 4:00pm EST Toronto Time. I verified this. On April 15 HOU close... June WTI futures was $26.56. On April 16 HOU close... June WTI was $26.13 exactly at 4:00pm Toronto time. You can verify this by Googling "bar charts oil futures" then click on June. Zoom in on the chart and hover your finger and it'll show you the prices at every time of the day. So that day to day close of HOU perfectly followed the drop of June WTI from $26.56 down to $26.13. A drop of 1.619% x 2 Lverage = 3.238% drop for HOU. That was exactly how much HOU closed down from $5.17 previous close to $5.00. Zero erosion or decay from April 15 to 16 close! The reason it's an illusion of being shammmed (and I thought so to until I looked into it) is because the Chicago Options Exchange uses a very weird time for their previous day close. So we wake to see X gain or loss on June WTI futures based on a weird closing time price. You want to compare the closing of June WTI Oil exactly at the price at 4:00pm EST Toronto Time and it shows the close to close X 2 leverage for HOU is accurate! Also keep in mind that the Chicago Options Exchange is 1 hour before Toronto Eastern Time. So you have to look at the chart on CME or Barcharts at 3pm to show 4pm Toronto time... which is when HOU stops trading for the day. Yesterday there was no decay or erosion. Decay can happen if the index is volatile up 10% one day and down 10% next day. At leverage that would be of HOU was up 20% one day and down 20% next day... then theres a volatility erosion to lose a few percent. But April 15 to 16 close to close at 4pm EST was not volatile enough to erode HOU. So tomorrow HOU will drop or gain based on the April 16 4:00pm EST June WTI price of $26.13. HOU will drop or gain tomorrow based on that price. I also called Horizons to verify what the website says. HOU does not roll over from June to July WTI Oil futures until May 6 (over 4 days). The rollover for options traders from May to June that happens on April 21 will have no effect on HOU! I verified this calling Horizons. Contango can occur where June WTI converges closer to Spot and May WTI. But if you read my post from a few days ago... the Convergence wider spread of Contangos from June to May is normal because the oil storage tanks are too full and commercial buyers of oil have to delay buying oil and pay a premium for a future delivery when storage tanks free up. This was explained in Wikipedia. And the BS posts on Investing.com that if theres wide Contango from May to June or June to July that HOU arbitrages and drops to near zero is BS! April 21 will not have any effect on HOU. The May 6 rollover from June to July for HOU will have some decay... but probably only 10%. I hope to sell an Oil Squeeze before May 6! It's safe to hold until May 6 without big decay. I called Horizons and they said the Arbitrage of HOU over rollovers is not true. Just a bit of decay over the May 6 rollover will happen. Maybe 10%.
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