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Comment by
pierregon Apr 23, 2020 9:04am
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Post# 30943615
RE:RE:Gold Price Breakout Shining Light On Beaten Down Miners
RE:RE:Gold Price Breakout Shining Light On Beaten Down Miners REPS346 Gold Price Breakout Shining Light On Beaten Down Miners. Apr. 23, 2020
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/667695-jeb-handwerger/5437061-gold-price-breakout-shining-light-on-beaten-down-miners
Summary
Breakout in gold at $1700.
Should test all time highs at $1900.
Could be in 2000+ in USD terms by the summer.
Sell stocks in May but buy junior gold miners drilling away.
Exciting time for mining investors as M&A Increasing.
The breakout in gold (GLD) is here at $1700 hit just last week! Looks like a breakout of an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline resistance at $1700 and the bottom at $1450.
If we see follow through on volume, our next technical move could be to new record highs at $1950 possibly $2000 gold this summer!
Should be exciting for junior gold miners (NYSEARCA:GDXJ) and hopefully start lifting the deeply undervalued silver metal (SLV) which is considered poor man’s gold and usually lags but then overshoots gold on the upside!
The gold silver ratio recently hit a peak of 130 to 1 during the panic. Bonds also skyrocketed during panic. (TLT)
Picture: https://cdn.ceo.ca/1fa34gf-667695-15874960666566238_origin.jpg
ed has responded to coronavirus global emergency with cut of interest rates to zero, unlimited qe announcement plus a record global stimulus!
Debt could go up to $30 trillion in USA after Trump pushes Infrastructure Bill next.
Gold is breaking out into new all time highs against most currencies except the US dollar which is the strongest fiat currency left. This breakout of gold in US dollar (UUP) terms will send gold miners (GDX) soaring!
In addition, this comes at a time when oil (OIL) demand due to coronavirus reaches all time lows. Prices for oil are the cheapest ever and investors know energy costs make up a huge component for gold miners. I wouldn't be surprised to see a record quarter for gold miners as costs are driven down.
That money may go in to fund equity investments in junior miners. I notice mid tier gold producer Alamos (AGI) made a strategic investment in a little junior in Timmins Ontario hitting some high grade gold recently.
Gold closed over the high it set on March 9th a very bullish signal after a selloff. You have to remember or if you are new to gold trading and gold mining this isn't the first time we've been through a crash.
Its like 2008 and 2000 all over again. You might feel some capitulation pain during the liquidity crisis.
Margin Calls suck but then markets rebound fast after the forced liquidation. Margin calls shake out all the weak hands before going to new highs.
That is what #gold does!
Gold comes down with stocks at beginning of bear market but rebounds rapidly due to central bank money printing.
Despite this painful crash and black swan bear market gold is still up 11% versus the S&P 500 down 18%.
For months I have been warning that stocks have been setting up for a bear market and recession as investors grew overly complacent.
Now for almost 9 months we have been witnessing a flow of funds from stocks with insiders selling and huge inflows to precious metal etf’s and gold royalty companies like Franco Nevada (FNV) , Royal Gold (RGLD) and Sandstorm (SAND).
Producers like Barrick (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM) are finally breaking out. I expect the mid tier and small producers to move next and see some consolidation. Notice the recent acquisition of beaten down Semafo (OTCPK:SEMFF) which lost 37 miners in Burkina Faso to extreme Islamic Terrorists by Endeavour Mining (OTCQX:EDVMF).
Then we look for the companies in construction and start up with high margins and low costs. Eventually, investors will look at the companies producing economic studies.
Finally, then you look for the companies with resources or coming up with a maiden resource.
Don't forget the money will go into the most important part of gold mining exploration with the drill which has been completely neglected for almost 30 years.
Preservation of capital is the name of the game during stock market crashes and black swan bear markets like this pandemic black swan fear driven market! Stick to the precious metals and the gold miners which may have one of the best quarters in history.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.