Price Stable for Now It's not going to the moon or the bottom of the lagoon. Before the virus, IVN really was on track to go to the moon. There are now three factors, however, beyond the control of shareholders:
1) How will this virus play out? Will it fizzle out over the next few months, or will it linger so that people are afraid to go out? The trajectory of the virus is beyond the ability of any investor to predict.
2) Zijin and CITIC own approximately 40% of the Company already. They only need another 10% to assume control. In less than two years they'll have the opportunity to do just that. I'm assuming they will place a bid for 10% or more of the shares outstanding. Will the global economy recover in time to give IVN a lift? From our perspective today that looks like a long shot. You need everything to line up: the virus disappears early, small business remains largely intact, people somehow find more money to blow on restaurants, sports, and theatre, and governments around the world embark on massive infrastructure projects that use tons of base metals. This is expecting a lot for the next two years.
3) IVN needs another placement. According to a recent news release I believe they need $1.4 billion total. They'll need $500 million or more. And with this virus stuff they could be forced over budget with all the extra precautions. How will they finance, debt or equity? Either way, it will almost certainly be CITIC teeing up the financing. I don't see a Western miner stepping into DRC right now.
So yes, these are amazing properties, but INV could be running out of time. It's too bad because I love the Company.