I talked with HORIZONs about HOUFinally connected with HORIZONs by phone about HOU.(took many attempts over days).
Sounded technical as if he knew what he is talking about.
Here is what was said.:
With subscriptions temporarily suspended the HOU price cannot reliably track futures oil price. It will often be disconnected.
He said when NAV is at a substantial premium to the Unit price then traders are very exposed and does not recommend buying HOU when this happens.
In the past when subscriptions are issued to market makers, the normal way of doing things, the NAV and unit price tend to be fairly close. Implying when this happens, becomes a safer investment and can track properly with oil futures.
The NAV and Unit price are posted over night daily on the Horizons HOU web page
https://www.horizonsetfs.com/etf/HOU.
On the HOU web page today: NAV: 9.68, Unit Price 19.88, Premium 105% effective April/30.
When they return to allowing subsciptions, HOU should act better. Their press releases suggest this will happen when oil volatility is lower and at a resonable level. Will issue a press release when subscriptions start again. He also recommends reading all the recent press releases.
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What I forgot to ask is in current conditions if HOU cannot reliably track the Oil Futures price,
why is HOU not halted until it can act as advertised. I suspect the answer would be, this has been reviewed with regulators, the press releases and warnings have been issued, and not fair to block investors from exiting their investment if they are not comfortable with cirrent circumstances. But thats just a guess. Would like to get an answer to this. Maybe I will call later but hard to get through.