OTCPK:PDPYF - Post by User
Comment by
Sadie222on May 15, 2020 11:47am
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Post# 31033717
RE:RE:Math
RE:RE:MathI’m not terribly optimistic, with LNG flooding the Asia market and US supply cuts on shaky ground.
JohnFriesen wrote: Kramerkarma wrote:
I did some back of the envelope math using the latest build. So using the low side of the median of builds over the last 6 years we are +2.4BCF/D. If the decline from the start of the year to now stays at the same rate it's almost a perfect BCF/ month. Almost identical to the eia DPR of .89bcf/ month. So that takes to july 9th to be neutral. Then theres the rest of the year 175 days with and average of 2.4BCF less (if the decline stayed at pace would be 3bcf... but .6bcf saftey net) would be 420BCF draw by year end. The EIA steo has 2020 at 4.1TCF (even tho supply is already 1BCF lower than their years average) 3.7TCF would be my prediction . It does not take into account more oil coming offline or online later in the year, lng demand lost, covid demand return, or abnormally hot summer or increased gas for power . It's just the EIA steo with the last few months and future months decline.
As your post indicates, there are so many variables this year, no one can even guess where we will end up going into next winter's heating season.
If the natty gods are with us, it could be extremely bullish. Only time will tell.