Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Alternate Symbol(s): ATHOF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Athabasca Oil Corporation (AOC) is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets. AOC’s segments include Light Oil and Thermal Oil. The Thermal Oil segment includes the Company’s assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations located in the Athabasca region of Northern Alberta. It also consists of two operating oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage projects and a resource base of exploration areas in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The Light Oil segment includes its assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of light crude oil and medium crude oil, tight oil and conventional natural gas. Its Light Oil segment consists exclusively of the Duvernay in the Greater Kaybob area with about 155,000 gross acres across Kaybob West, Kaybob North, Kaybob East and Two Creeks.

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Athabasca Oil Corp

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Comment by TheMechanic2020on May 19, 2020 6:02pm

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Post# 31048569

RE:RE:RE:RE:ATH vs BTE: Who's more likely to go bankrupt?

You sound like a solid investor Chris.

I allocate 20% of my portfolio to high risk high reward stocks. The kind that either go bankrupt or become 10 baggers.

I've lost a lot on ATH, BTE and BBD, but GUY has been a solid gamble and turned into a 5 bagger in 2 months. I want to put my GUY profits into one of those 3 that I've lost a lot on and average down. If they don't go bankrupt the returns will be spectactular, but of course there's a fairly large risk of bankruptcy.

Chris007 wrote: No, I don't have a position in either at the moment. I used to own both from 2018-2019 (and lost money on both). Unless you are an active trader (which I am not), I personally wouldn't mess with the small caps.

After the oil price crash, I have mostly focused on the large caps and infrastrucure (pipelines and refineries) . You will get some upside participation, but also minimize your downside risk. Its worked out pretty decently so far.

Of the midcaps, I do like Parex, due to its debt free balance sheet and the fact that it gets brent pricing for its oil. However, I don't own it.

I have been playing energy, like I have been positioning the rest of my portfolio in general, using the market crash to upgrade to higher quality names (higher market cap, lower beta).

TheMechanic2020 wrote: Thanks Chris. That was a helpful reply.

No need to answer if you don't want, but out of curiosity, do you have a position in either ATH or BTE? Or are you mainly sticking to the mid-caps and large caps?

Chris007 wrote:

TheMechanic2020 wrote: I'd like to invest more in either ATH or BTE. Based on all of your expert opinions, which one do you think is more likely to survive, and what odds of bankruptcy would you assign for each company?

Obviously both ATH and BTE can both be classified as "distressed".

Baytex's 2027 notes are currently priced at 49.75 cents on the dollar (24.034% YTM)
Athabasca's 2022 notes currently priced at 22.22 cent on the dollar (125.25% YTM)

Baytex has a bit more leeway in regard to bankruptcy fears, as they have managed to roll over their debt (2021 notes to 2027) and they redeemed their 2022 notes with borrowing on their revolving credit facility/term loan

If you do decide to play the small caps, diversification is definitely your friend. That being said, if you already own ATH and BTE, why not put you money into another company instead.