FX Reply - Financials / Street Forecasting ⚔️ 🛡️Too long to reply... you get the ramble... ;) I tend not to trust consensus reports in general as I believe that it is impossible that these financial papers have actually been written by human beings sitting down and running a proper analysis of all the stocks and then releasing those findings as free articles for everyone to see. The manpower required to do that many reports every 3 months is too much to give away for free…
You get what you pay for… the general public / average joe investor only gets to enjoy the kid’s menu at McDonald’s for analysis reports (automated / turned out in mass quantity). If you want the steak dinner of a report you have to buck up and pay a professional to produce one for you or you can shoot the cow yourself and try to carve out the facts and build your own (do your own research).
Last QTR report the “McDonald Reports” forecasted earnings of $15 Million, HEXO came in at $17 Million. This time round, as usual, the average investor is being fed a bunch of free reports which (IMHO) are simply computer-generated estimates. Anything computer-generated has a difficult time accounting for changes in the market.
Over the last number of months, we have had the whole virus thing impacting the markets and consumer buying habits. This will include things such as alcohol, cannabis and other “comfort items” to deal with stress and boredom. A computer generated estimate on the sale of cars over that period was definitely going to be super high however a computer generated estimate for the sale of toilet paper was likely insanely low… (WHO SEEN THAT COMING?? .. SERIOUSLY!!??)
The QTR reports we seen on ACB and APH blew away estimates as the change in consumer habits favorability impacted ACB and APH’s sales numbers. With Canopy we seen their numbers disappoint and fall below estimates. Canopy (IMHO) were in the right place at the wrong time. They had done all their cost cutting within the reporting period but then also had to write down a ton of things while suffering from a loss of sales brought on by brick and mortar stores being shut down for a time.
If you look around for estimates on HEXO you will find a whole host of numbers, some higher than others. IMHO (seriously, this is my opinion, NOT A STATEMENT OF FACT) it is unlikely HEXO will come in any lower than last QTR’s sales number of $17 Million. This belief is based on their continued sales growth and that they expanded original HASH into the Western Provinces. I also believe (again, my thoughts, maybe not anyone else’s) that HEXO benefited from the virus and a change in consumer buying habits and seen some amount of incremental sales.
If you take last quarter’s numbers, account for some amount of organic (normal / expected sales growth) then add on what you think may be additional sales, you can start to form your own estimates on where the numbers will land. As for Earnings Per Share.. take the number of shares from last quarter, account for the Canacord deals, do the math and rough out your estimate on the EPS. At this time I do not have my own estimates done for EPS however the weekend is a great time to do research, determine/revisit; timelines, investment strategies and targets so that you go into the new week with a plan.
Need coffee.. cutting this off here...
Q quinlash wrote: FX,
First off... Good Question.. valid question... and a great topic for a forum board discussion
Secondly (and just as important)... Welcome back to the board !
Lastly... you want the short answer to your question... or one of my epic rambles ? ;)
Q FXtheknob wrote: Anyone check what the consensus is for the current q ending in April?? Looks like the average earnings estimate is $-0.05/share this q with revenue of $20 million. Perhaps still some risk this Q?