RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Salvage therapy new paperIt's my understanding that a drug must be specifically approved for HIV NASH for it to be prescribed, and that THTX is *the only* company pursuing such approval. So although the market may be 1/23 general NASH, Egrifta would be the first (and only for sometime) approved drug for HIV NASH. This is why some of us hang around!
Egrifta would requires an additional approval for general NASH, that's why it is not the main focus of the company right now, it would be an expensive pursuit.
"seemingly sitting on a winning lottery ticket."? ... that's why I'm still here after watching this crash for the last two years.
-LT
Victura wrote: SPCEO1, thank you for your deep and involved analysis (it gave me a lot to go off and research!). Okay so let's look at the stock as a NASH play and compare it to NGM and MDGL as you suggested (although I'd say NGM is the best comparison by structure and operations). HIV NASH as you've said is indeed a smaller market, representing about 1/23rd of NASH cases overall from what I'm seeing in the US. Also the drug THTX is seeking NASH approval for looks to have an impact on lives fat reduction of 37% versus NGM's drug which produces a 58-67% drop (and MDGL's drug that produces a 64% drop). We could look at market cap differentials like you stated to say that THTX should be entitled to a roughly 5.5x boost like you said (market cap of at least a billion as a NASH play) giving it a value of $10 a share by your analysis. But with a market that is 1/23rd the size statistically of the markets these companies will serve, and a drug that is roughly half as effective, would you consider the possibility that these things are factored into the current price? Also worth asking, since this drug will neither be the first to market or the most effective seemingly for NASH, are we just counting on HIV patients preferring it and paying much more for the specific usage with their condition? Why wouldn't they chose something that has been on market longer that provides seemingly better results? Have you considered the possibility that the market isn't unaware of THTX and its adventures in NASH, but just maybe that it doesn't consider them relevant? I'm deeply interested to hear your response, as I'd genuinely like to believe your version of events where I am seemingly sitting on a winning lottery ticket.