IVN is a Bet on the Global Recovery Is it recovery, or is it just more government debt? And if it is government debt, how long can they keep it up? They can't keep handing out free money forever, both in the West and China. Although a vaccine may come available in the next six months, we're still faced with the same manufacturing bottleneck that created a shortage of N95 masks, hand sanitizer, and gloves. Yes, they know how to make the masks, and no, you're not getting one.
We need billions of doses, but lack the economy of scale to bang out production. We don't even have an adequate supply of glass vials to deliver the vaccine. That's why we in the West must remain disciplined (like China, South Korea, and Taiwan) to limit the spread until which time a vaccine is ready. And when it is ready, the limited supply will create a queue. Health care workers get it first, then the elderly, and only after that will they get to everyone else. The earliest for most of us is mid-2021 and probably Q4 2021 -- that's if everything goes right.
This recovery isn't real. Economic recovery depends on defeating the virus. Judging by yesterday's numbers (USA 900 dead, 36,000 positive tests), we're not even close yet. It turns out covid is mostly spread through breathing it in rather than hand to mouth. Fresh air acts to dilute exposure. If this keeps up, a second wave is almost inevitable next winter, as people are forced to shut windows to keep out the cold. We lost the chance to cut down numbers by letting our guard down.
In my opinion, if there's a second wave, the global economy will totally crater. Once government support stops, more businesses will be forced to close. Success only belongs to those who prepare, not those who are negligent in the face of danger.
The good news for IVN is that they did prepare. Since they're fully funded to production at K-K -- and avoided a debt trap at Platreef, which now seems brilliant -- they will survive just about any carnage. The bad news is there will likely be a supply surplus of copper. Futures markets are in backwardation The current bottleneck is strictly caused by mine closures and recent Chinese regulation forbidding the import of most scrap. It's good copper price is up, but it's for all the wrong reasons.