RE:RE:RE:IVN is Tracking the Market Where was I before I hit the post button by accident? I'm not looking to get back in -- that shouldn't discourage anyone else though. The important is if you believe in something, go for it. If you believe IVN will reach $10, you should buy it. If something excites you, believe in your own judgment. For myself, it's not enough to buy in because someone else likes it enough to bid up the share price. But others see it differently.
There is no absolute right or wrong choice. There are arguments in favour of the Company -- offhand I can think of a few myself -- and there are strong financial arguments against. But market price isn't decided by NPV. Markets are very emotional and the biggest factor is that intangible, investor "sentiment". I had a discussion with a pension fund manager in 1999 before the tech bubble burst in 2000. He argued a stock was worth whatever someone is prepared to pay for it. I said there were deep structural flaws in the financial system and that eventually the bubble would burst. Who was right? We were both right. Long term the bubble burst, and short term he made lots of money. If traders like something, they can bid share price up to ridiculous levels, So, although I may be able to demonstrate IVN is not worth $10 or $15 a share based on financial analysis of cash flows, it doesn't matter if someone is willing to pay the price.