RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Updated Pack Date List Didn't expect so soon joh, thank you....~$20mil sure looks very reasonable and with the info you provide very doable. This has been an impressive 6-8mos and in her first couple of months on the job we see an ~100% increase quarter over quarter for her debut and we should see that repeated in the first half of FY2021...is there any question whether SP is being manipulated?
Beena/ Moore have this company turned and headed north as the rest of the sector 'right sizes', add profit realized and with 60%+ to go to reach full producton, which does not appear that it will take Beena/ team that long to achieve going forward....FIRE is just begining to execute the implementation of the production capacity of 7acres, plus Blissco and Truverra and to realize profit while the rest of the sector struggles to get more FIRElike and dream of the day they could realize a cash flow positive position, let alone profit.
The ~$20mil is an estimate at this point but even if it is $15 the trajectory for FIRE is the same, it is just simply fantastic instead of orgasmic for the quarter. Thanks again joh, you are a gentleman, a scholar and a fine judge of whiskey/ herb. JMHO....Opt
johnale wrote: ya for sure opt - no worries.
I can calculate everything 6 ways from sunday - but I don't know the ratio of 7g to 3.5g to 1g pre-rolls that they produce.
if you have a 25/75 split 7g to 3.5g packaging - and make that 90% of all production and assign 10% to pre rolls - (some reasonable assumptions)
pro-rate all the most current package dates that are visible (although im sure there are even more recent ones)
account for some variability in packaging - increasing into march -
then I come up with about 20+ million in revenue.
slice it 10 other ways - and Im still getting close to 20mil in revenues.
give a 15% range to the negative and positive and I think we are in a
17.4 mil to 23.58 mil range in revenues - with a 20.5mil mid-point.
13.839 mil - rec original strains (pre-rolls/3.5 and 7g)
3.3 mil - wholesale
1.5mil - Craft Collective
0.874 mil - sugar leaf pre rolls
1-1.5mil - vapes/CBD/Rosin (best guess)
Total - 20.513 mil rev.
My current best guess - barring any additional information.