RE:RE:By the way bloomer. COPPER IS AT 2.70 AND Homebone,
The best insight anyone can get is from the Company technical reports, which tend to be excellent. All of them provide a thorough economic analysis, including values at different commodity price assumptions. Everything said here is just second hand information. I wouldn't go less than 8% on the discount rate of the base case scenario. A copper mine in Manitoba would be assigned a 10% discount, so I don't see how a mine in DRC could be considered a superior jurisdiction.
Also, read the 2018 DRC mining law. Everyone here avoids discussing the 10% strategic metals royalty, which the government can impose at any time. Same goes for the implementation of a 50% windfall tax on higher copper prices.
That provides a solid basis to understand the fundamentals. Often, stocks don't trade according to the fundamentals, but at least you know what the fundamentals are. It's surprising most traders don't bother to do more than a cursory study. You can really see this on the IVN board. TOPS keeps saying IVN will go to $20 share. Only problem is, if you look at the economic analysis for the 18 Mtpa mine, that exceeds the undiscounted cash flow for the entire life of mine! The calculation is easy:
(cash flow over 37 years in $ billions) x 0.396 IVN share of mine / 1.2 billion shares out = cash flow/share.
It's an easy calculation that anyone can perform. I've used both $2.50 and $3.00 long term copper price. You can plug in $4, but at that point the DRC will likely impose a strategic metal designation and 50% windfall tax, which the economic analysis does not take into account.
Before Covid, I had a $7.50 share target. But also PGM's had gone nuts, facing a long term acute supply shortage that no longer exists. Platreef was adding serious value for shareholders. That's no longer the case.
Those are incontrovertible facts that no one can dispute. That's why I'm being subjected to a barrage of hysterical invective. When people can't argue the facts, they smash a beer bottle over your head and start swinging. In my opinion, stocks are 75% emotions and 25% intelligence. Greed is by far the most important factor.