RE:RE:RE:New ResultsTCrelave wrote: stockzorg, I'm new to the board, but a shareholder for a year or so.
Thank you for your analysis, very helpful!
Yesterday you mentioned that Teu was undervalued by $1 (Canadian I presume?), and today's NR only helps! (Please correct if I'm wrong.)
May I ask the number of Mineable OZs and Price for 'Dirty Gold' Price you were using? (and confirm US$ or CA$)
GLTA, Rich
Hi Rich. Yes, for the past several years I've been doing my own estimates on Treaty Creek. To do that I first collected data on the Seabridge Iron Cap deposit from their web site. As a baseline I used 48 holes that were drilled early on - back in 2010 - and resulted in a reserve of about 5.1 million oz. Au Indicated (since then 3.5 million oz. of that is Proven/Probable). I use that data as a double-check on my own Goldstorm calculations. If I use Goldstorm results that are about the same as the Iron Cap holes, I should come up with the same 5.1 million oz.
Most recently I've been working only with the shallow Goldstorm gold (GS300 - the top 300 meters from the surface) and only in the area that shows the best grades. That would be the last 14 holes drilled from 2018-39 through 2019-52 (hole 53 was not completed) in the northeast section of Goldstorm.
When I calculate how much gold is there based on Tudor's published results I get an average interval of 293 meters with about .8g/t of gold for each hole. The 14 holes cover an area of only 600m x 300m. Using 2.81 as the specific gravity gives me 148.3 million tons, 118.6 million grams Au, 3.8 million troy ounces. When I use the Iron Cap data to generate my double-check estimate I get 4.5 million oz. so I know my number is conservative. I'm comfortable that we have 3.8 million oz. Au of shallow gold that would be mineable in an open pit.
For Teuton's NSR I'm using $1700/oz. as a gold price and a 10 year mine life for the 3.8 million oz. That yields $6.3 million per year or 11.37 cents per share ongoing per year for the life of the mine. The value of that on the stock price at a P/E of 20 (again conservative) is $2.27. I'm using 55.7 million shares fully diluted.
For the price of gold in the ground I'm using $31 which is based on Cipher Research data on 240+ transactions over the past 20 years for Canadian gold on pre-production development projects. That gives me $117.8 million, 20% of that to Teuton or $23.56 million or $.42/share.
Teuton has some other assets like tax loss carryforwards and other properties that have option income due, Tudor shares, etc. I get about $.25 per share for those.
Total value for Teuton shares based on my numbers is currently $2.94/sh US dollars. Canadian dollars at $.74 exchange rate is $3.97.
I'm not counting the other gold at Goldstorm until I know the story with block caving, or see some interest from a major company that could develop underground. But my number for all of Goldstorm is currently 8.8 million oz. Au not counting today's results. My Iron Cap double-check on that comes out to 10.3 million oz. so again I'm conservative. Any NSR or dirty gold value can be calculated from that and would be obviously much higher.
Best, Doug