The Party Is OverTwo Good,
You've just given me all the incentive I need to continue posting. For a while I was getting bored. I'm certainly not bored anymore. You guys have a lot of nerve.
The truth is the world is entering the deepest recession since the 1930's. It's not going to be the party you and your pals are promising everyone here. This according to the World Bank, IMF and the Federal Reserve. And yes, I never explicitly stated it, but the global economy may crash for a decade.IVN is part of the real economy. It's a bricks and mortar business, not some tech stock unicorn.
Notwithstanding short term copper shortages due to mine closures, the long term outlook for copper, and zinc are bleak. Thousands of miners are sick with Covid in Chile and Peru, the number 1 and 2 global copper producers. When they come back to work, copper will flood into the markets. I used $2.50 lb copper in my model, but it can easily fall to $2.25 or lower. Just like in 2016. PGM's are less certain. They were in the garbage can for years, and then suddenly woke up in 2019 to the surprise of everyone, But now consumers don't have money to buy cars. And electric vehicles don't need them. That's reality.
Using a long term NPV8 scenario at $2.50 lb copper, this company is not worth more than $4 share. That's because there are 1.2 billion shares outstanding. And there may be further dilution. We'll find out. Share dilution lowers the value. If long term copper prices fall below $2.50, then the stock will be worth even less.