Not Expecting Anything New in the Kakula DFS That $4 share target assumes an 18Mtpa mine, not a 12 Mtpa mine. So for overall price valuation you want to see if anything changes in the 18 Mtpa scenario.
Possible run on the stock: Three years ago, on the eve of the Platreef DFS, share price tightened up at the $3.80 mark, then held at $4. When the DFS arrived, it was treated as the Second Coming. In a single day IVN jumped to $5... and the next fell from $5 to $4. Everyone fell out of love really fast. Subsequently, share price slowly circled the drain for over a year, before finding support at $2. I am curious to see if a similar scenario plays out now. It's a lot tougher to pull off these days, with the world in a deep recession.
One final thought: Don't worry. Be happy. Ignore all those tens of thousands of bodies piling up like cordwood down in the States. It doesn't mean anything. They'll probably have a vaccine next week, and everything will go back to normal. Capiche!