RE:Value of AUG vs ER
Agree, the share prices should converge as the market digests the deal and the weak hands get out of ER. The discount on ER is a gift to arbitrage trades, but there's always risk of the deal not going through as well as market risk for AUG between now and Sept as western governments continue to lift the facade of free societies and move toward more openly malevolent dictatorships under the ruse of a new common invisible enemy and another war which will never be won - the war on germs!
Germ warfare is a great addition to to other unwinnable wars; climate, terror, racism etc.
A lot of investors will naturally not want to hold for so long given these market uncertainties, however AUG also has significant upside risk between now and then. The crackdowns on freedom of mobility/peaceable assembly and autonomy over our bodies are very bad for business, but also very good for gold, silver and copper prices, especially given the UN has urged members to spend at least 10% of their respective GDP's to wage another fake war at our expense and our leaders have obeyed with enthusiasm.
Assuming the deal closes as planned, a buy of AUG could provide massive returns through Peru with lack of permitting being a considerable risk - hence the hefty premium over ER.
However, a buy of ER is a safer bet and likely will provide the fastest multiplication of dollars with the least amount of risk. To some, Peru is not where they want to be - hence why the deal makes so much sense. Further, Canadian projects benefit from flow through financings which are usually done to a significant premium to market price.
What we are seeing is a somewhat of a 'market failure' where the market doesn't grasp what's going on, but they will soon!