RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Bombardier quitte son siège social de MTL pour DorvalShamhorish, while I agree there is a (slight) possibility that Martel may pull a rabbit out of his hat, I am not as optimistic as you seem to be.
I am becoming concerned about the possibility of default in 2022 or early 2023. There is around $3.2B debt due by Oct 2022. The 2023 debt of $1.25B is due in Jan 2023, I believe.
I do not think the remaining deals will net BBD more than $3B, which means BBD must generate the difference ($200M or more) through operations, just to make the 2022 payment. Obviously, they will need to refinance the 2023 debt. They will need to have some remarkably good numbers over the next two years to convince the bond market and credit rating agencies that they are not a default risk in order to refinance the 2023 debt at lower rates (or even at the same 6.125% rate).
Jim
Shamhorish wrote: jim, (numbers i talked about are approx) we should learn about the real numbers on quarter per quarter bases
if bbd suceed in stoping cash burn before Alstom deal, then it is excellent and will add to $$$
if BT resolved some legacy projects issues and started to deliver a few units to Swiss, Germany, and UK, that will add to $$$ and decrease cash burn
if belfast deal is closed at agreed upon price, that will add to $$$
if BA recuperated fastfrom Covid and made a couple of hundred mil in 2020 that will add $$$
yes, there are a lot of IFs , but that is the case
some see the glass half empty, some see it half full
to summerize, in my openion bbd share price value deteriorated because of fear, fear that CRJ will not close the deal, they did close it, fear that Alstom deal will not be approved, it is approved, fear that Belfast deal will not close at agreed upon price (remain to be seen)
***** how much BA will have after Alstom deal close? we will learn about exact numbers when it happen, but if we assume as you said, BA will only get $ 2.5 b - 3.0 B approx + any cash at hand at the time, asuuming 1.0 B
***** few positive Quarters will help bbd get better credit rating, == better abilty to borrow at lower rates
***** and assuming BA can produce cash in rang of $250 mil - $300 mil per year
***** with the $2.5b - $3.0 billions from Alstom bbd can pay 2021 debt (1,48 b) at expiration date and 2022 of ($1.7 b) at expiration date
so end of 2022 bbd will have debt of ($9.5 - 1.48 - 1.7 = $6.32B)
from now till then ( 2.5 years) with BA making more money, paying debt on time, credit rating will be better, BA can refinance at lower rates, pay older debts as they expire
mean while having better management and better cash handling BA may increase sales, make more money
i am not an accountant, but those are just my point of view,
to me the glass is half full
and fear will desipate slowly as quarter after quarter bbd produce better balance sheet
Martel is working on changing the culture , if he suceed (an i hope he will) it will be great story