aint over til its overGreetings all – been reading this forum for a while and just opened a stockhouse account. I’ll try to add some relevant information to the discussion. I have some knowledge of the company and have relationships with 2 large shareholders that I speak with frequently. I have also spoken with management on 3 or 4 occasions. And while I am not a “pro” I follow the stock trading daily and have thoughts on the market and trading.
For disclosure, I am long about 1.2 million shares of ITT. Paid as little as 3 cents back in April before the run, bought it on the way up as high as .055. Sold a few hundred thousand at 6 and 6.5 before the first Thermalpass announcement but I bought those shares back and then some shortly after the May 7 news and bought a bunch more on the way down…my most recent purchase was at 3 cents last week. I am still deciding if I should buy more down here yet or wait to see some actual traction on ThermalPass and maybe pay a penny or two more.
The culprit that has hurt the market more than anything is the delay in having a working prototype arrive in Canada. Plain and simple. And its not that mgt or the CTO in UK Malcolm Rook didn’t try to have it here weeks ago. The device is complex. It is a new invention that has had hiccups along the way. The unfortunate part is that expectations on the timing of delivery were too ambitious and it never had a chance of being completed and marketed by late June as originally communicated by mgt.
So what is the prognosis as I see it? Here are my impressions having watched this unfold. Most of what I write is based on my opinion or interpretation. For me it was always a speculative investment based on a best efforts business plan and product, never a guaranteed success. That’s said, it actually still has a decent shot at being successful imo
Mid March: Covid has been hitting hard in China, mid east, Europe and starting to hit North America.
Early April: I believe around this time ITT management has the idea to develop a fever detection product based on existing IP (weather Telematics sensors) and human resources, (Malcolm Rook, the UK engineer that has been part of ITT for a few years)
Mid April: the stock starts to trade huge volume and moves off of 2 cents for the first time in a long time. I was following the story then but only based on Weather Telematics. I heard rumors circulating that the company was looking at doing something Covid related but the guessing was it would be about test kits.
Late April: Company was working on ThermaPass but a lot of the people buying stock were still thinking it was going to be test kits, ie a Datametrix lookalike.
Early May: TP gets announced, stock sells off. Some investors that were expecting a different Covid angle didn’t like the “altered course” or didn’t buy the TP concept and bailed on the stock.
Rest of May and into June: stock fights hard but never regains the pre May 7 momentum.
From that point on it has been downhill..Quality TP news (Health Canada etc) helped prop the stock up temporarily but it has wanted to drift LOWER since May. Timing of the unit’s arrival was a moving target and that has been our albatross. No unit received meant delayed media events, no proof of concept installations and most importantly no meaningful sales.
In defense of Mike Lende and the CTO, this device is not a simple contraption. There is all kinds of complex circuitry and tying it all together with the sensors and data transmission not easy. I have come to realize the delays were inevitable. From concept to working prototype in 60 days was never realistic. We all would have been better off if the stated timelines were far more conservative (or not at all stipulated) because when a pubco is missing time targets or milestones, and news doesn’t flow, the stock will always get punished……
In summary:
The delays in prototype arrival have inflicted massive damage to the stock.
In spite of that, the product if and when it is ready may be in high demand. If so, shareholders will win big
Everything I have observed says it was never a scam or BS. Management looked to seize on an opportunity. They have been creative, resourceful and motivated all the way through. I have spoken to Mike Lende and I can tell he has conviction and he’s in it to win it. Last chat with him was 10 days ago and he remains very optimistic there will be a winning outcome for TP and shareholders.
Prototype MUST be closer to finished now than it ever has been (unless there is a terminal technological impasse which I doubt)
When it arrives, even if it is another couple weeks from now, news flow will recommence – Media push, POC’s, household name trials and…………..purchase orders?
A few purchase orders will change everything. With first real sales, stock would be back to May/June highs (.30+ post consolidation) imo. And a lot higher if the sales kick in solid….100 units is CAD$1mm top line; 1000 units = CAD$10mm etc. The numbers have potential to add up very fast….
Only two Questions remain - will there be a device ready for commercialization soon? And will it be hard to sell a few hundred or relatively easy to sell in the 10’s of thousands?? Your guess is good as mine but some things are in our favour: the pandemic isn’t letting up. Many countries are having a tough time still and obviously the U.S. is a disaster. Sad for humanity but unrelenting Covid transmission is in our favour and so will be the expected/inevitable second wave.
At this point it’s a brief time horizon to a binary conclusion on ThermalPass. We’re going to find out very soon if this is a homerun or a swing and a miss, but no doubt about it the pitch is still on the way to the plate!